Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:12:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e67…f680 other 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%7W / 133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$2
sports 22% −$2
politics 20% −$2
crypto 10% −$1
economics 7% −$1
world 6% −$1
culture 4% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 140 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses7 / 133
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)140 / 140
History coverage174d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 140 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $42 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $21 $0 -1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 18 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 16 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 16 $142 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 16 $99 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 16 $187 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 16 $146 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 16 $44 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 16 $49 −$1 -2%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 16 $95 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Feb 16 $135 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 16 $100 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 16 $45 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 16 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 16 $194 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 16 $96 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 13 $99 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 13 $48 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 13 $152 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 13 $26 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 13 $18 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 11 $200 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 11 $44 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 11 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 11 $101 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 11 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 06 $74 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 06 $37 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Feb 06 $48 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $42 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $42 6h
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $21 14d
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 96¢ $21 14d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $36 27d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $36 28d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $45 40d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $45 43d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $46 130d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $46 130d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $46 130d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $46 130d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $46 130d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $46 130d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $2 130d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $2 130d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $45 130d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $45 130d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $44 130d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $44 130d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $48 130d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 130d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 96¢ $47 130d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 96¢ $47 130d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 97¢ $48 130d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 97¢ $48 130d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? SELL No 97¢ $47 130d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? BUY No 97¢ $47 130d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 93¢ $47 130d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 93¢ $47 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 415 history records