Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:23:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9E 0x9e6f…5e4f other 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$5 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%32W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days+$15
14 days+$30
30 days+$223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$109
sports 22% +$279
world 7% −$80
politics 4% −$32
crypto 2% −$4
weather 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +13.6% +2.8% 56% 56% -7.6%
≤30d 41 +21.5% +9.9% 54% 51% +9.0%
≤90d 45 +16.1% +5.0% 53% 49% +2.9%
all 60 +9.9% -0.6% 53% 48% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 48% -6.4%
10% -10.1% 45% -15.4%
15% -18.8% 43% -23.6%
20% -26.8% 33% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$29 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses32 / 28
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)60 / 65
History coverage158d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 89¢ 90¢ $213 $218 +$5 (+2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $18 +$8 (+84%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Netherlands 27¢ $30 $9 −$21 (-70%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 35¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Mexico to s Jun 25 $20 +$49 +238%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$15 +73%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$29 +113%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$6 +38%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $20 +$11 +52%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $20 +$40 +197%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 21 $20 +$31 +152%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $35 +$16 +46%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $15 +$13 +86%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$14 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 +$15 +70%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $20 +$31 +152%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $36 −$35 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $15 +$21 +140%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: United States (-3.5) Jun 19 $15 −$12 -75%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $41 +$48 +117%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$2 +5%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $20 −$14 -70%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $31 +$58 +188%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $59 +$45 +76%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$10 +41%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $26 +$182 +711%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 15 $50 −$49 -99%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 12 $37 +$14 +39%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones Mar 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? Mar 28 $35 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playo Mar 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 16 $40 +$22 +54%
Stefon Diggs: Anytime Touchdown Feb 08 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 08 $17 +$5 +32%
Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship? Jan 26 $49 +$20 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 27¢ $31 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 19h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Mexico to s BUY 29¢ $20 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 23h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY 46¢ $25 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 89¢ $25 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $15 26h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 38¢ $15 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 4d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 23¢ $15 4d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $20 4d
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 53¢ $15 4d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 4d
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $20 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $40 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 33¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $15 5d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 5d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 41¢ $15 5d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 6d
Spread: United States (-3.5) SELL United States $4 6d
Spread: United States (-3.5) BUY United States 19¢ $15 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.79 · official $264.80 (match) · 137 history records