Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:25:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e71…2153 world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate27%11W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$1
other 21% $0
politics 17% $0
sports 8% $0
crypto 4% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 20% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 11 +1.8% -7.9% 18% 9% -9.8%
≤90d 11 +1.8% -7.9% 18% 9% -9.8%
all 41 +0.3% -9.2% 27% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 2% -9.7%
10% -17.9% 2% -18.3%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses11 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage268d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $66 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $34 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $66 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $33 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $50 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $2 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $33 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 +25%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 04 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $8 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $8 $0 +1%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 02 $11 $0 -1%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 02 $11 −$1 -4%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $11 $0 -2%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 01 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 01 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 29 $15 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 29 $10 $0 -1%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 28 $15 $0 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 27 $19 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $1 $0 -2%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $8 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on September 24? Sep 25 $29 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $11 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $20 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $33 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $37 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $37 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 75¢ $34 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $34 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $27 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $34 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $34 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $34 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $32 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $32 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $26 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $4 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $29 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $33 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $17 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $17 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $33 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $33 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.76 · official $31.76 (match) · 133 history records