Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:23:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e72…0306 world 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 372d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,181 (+9%) realized +$1,082 · open +$99
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate24%13W / 42L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$549now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$300
14 days−$430
30 days−$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% +$2,520
other 7% −$898
sports 4% −$62
crypto 1% −$139
politics 1% −$111
economics 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-39.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 9 -69.1% -72.1% 22% 11% -24.4%
≤90d 32 -66.4% -69.6% 12% 9% -50.8%
all 55 -33.3% -39.7% 24% 18% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.7% 18% -0.7%
10% -45.5% 16% -10.2%
15% -50.7% 13% -18.8%
20% -55.6% 13% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +22% → late -87% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$503 vs −$127 · ×3.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

372d coverage
Net worth$549
Realized+$1,082
Unrealized+$99
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses13 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)55 / 57
History coverage372d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 50¢ $300 $512 +$212 (+71%)
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $150 $37 −$113 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Spain? Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 26 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $400 +$275 +69%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 01 $400 +$36 +9%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $200 −$114 -57%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Apr 12 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Apr 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025? Apr 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu before July? Apr 12 $106 −$106 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Apr 12 $37 −$37 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? Apr 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Apr 12 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Apr 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times June 27–July 4? Apr 12 $81 −$81 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 12 $810 −$810 -100%
Khamenei seen in public before July? Apr 12 $73 −$73 -100%
Israeli ground operation against Fordow before August? Apr 12 $109 −$34 -32%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? Apr 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Apr 12 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Apr 12 $200 −$200 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Apr 12 $1,007 −$818 -81%
Wimbledon: De Minaur vs. Djokovic Apr 12 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 12 $100 +$487 +487%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $1,100 +$251 +23%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $100 −$100 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 09 $300 +$25 +8%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 06 $1,300 −$206 -16%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 04 $100 +$62 +62%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 03 $100 −$20 -20%
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $200 −$84 -42%
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 01 $5 −$4 -75%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $905 +$4,313 +476%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $51 −$14 -27%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? Oct 09 $218 +$534 +245%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? Jul 21 $194 +$24 +12%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Jul 04 $207 −$113 -54%
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu before August? Jul 01 $5 +$2 +28%
Trump x Khamenei talk before July? Jun 29 $10 −$6 -65%
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23? Jun 25 $90 +$70 +77%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $174 −$174 -100%
Israel strike on Iran on June 24? Jun 24 $532 −$423 -80%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Jun 23 $200 −$110 -55%
Will Powell say "Judge" during June Press Conference? Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $306 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $154 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Spain? BUY Yes 1¢ $100 44h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 2d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 8d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 9d
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 58¢ $200 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 64¢ $329 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 39¢ $200 21d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $436 27d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $400 27d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 29d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY No 4¢ $100 33d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL No 3¢ $86 33d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY No 4¢ $100 33d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY Yes 72¢ $100 36d
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $100 81d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 17¢ $100 81d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,000 85d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL No 18¢ $138 85d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 13¢ $100 86d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? SELL Yes 21¢ $325 111d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $810 111d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY Yes 19¢ $300 112d
US forces enter Iran by March 7? SELL Yes 2¢ $51 113d
US forces enter Iran by March 7? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 116d
US forces enter Iran by March 7? SELL Yes 6¢ $250 116d
US forces enter Iran by March 7? SELL Yes 6¢ $20 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $548.82 · official $556.32 · 175 history records