Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:58:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9E 0x9e78…1a6f sports 191 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,441 (+4%) realized +$3,435 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate61%115W / 75L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$458per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$389est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,006now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$231
14 days+$1,492
30 days+$1,256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$2,013
other 22% +$1,889
world 2% +$7
crypto 1% −$607
culture 1% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -9.9% -18.5% 37% 37% +7.7%
≤30d 52 +20.7% +9.2% 50% 44% +4.0%
≤90d 116 +4.0% -5.9% 53% 36% -9.9%
all 190 +3.6% -6.3% 61% 47% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 47% -6.0%
10% -15.2% 37% -15.0%
15% -23.4% 25% -23.2%
20% -30.9% 19% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$690) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$179 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$1,006
Realized+$3,435
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses115 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$389
Open positions1
Markets (closed)190 / 191
History coverage149d
Avg bet$458
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $1,000 $1,006 +$6 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $23 +$19 +79%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $13 −$13 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $518 +$307 +59%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $22 +$19 +86%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $18 −$18 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $17 −$16 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $24 +$21 +90%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $15 +$28 +180%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $22 +$22 +97%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $25 −$24 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -98%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $22 $0 -2%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $7 +$16 +226%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $19 +$25 +133%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $18 +$26 +140%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 +$33 +291%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $12 −$12 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $14 −$14 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $156 +$48 +30%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $23 −$2 -8%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $22 −$22 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $29 −$29 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $72 −$71 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $39 +$393 +1012%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $101 +$314 +310%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $150 −$147 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $109 −$107 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $261 +$199 +76%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $114 +$153 +134%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $53 +$58 +109%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $625 +$192 +31%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $220 +$96 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $440 +$192 +44%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $155 +$53 +34%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $230 −$230 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $118 +$97 +83%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $204 −$201 -99%
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $323 +$17 +5%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $101 +$50 +50%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $106 −$104 -98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $666 +$893 +134%
Will Alex Caruso win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 31 $301 +$20 +7%
Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $911 −$911 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,004 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $23 43h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $15 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 30¢ $13 2d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 29¢ $12 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $5 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 60¢ $501 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $18 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $18 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $17 3d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 53¢ $22 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $16 3d
United States leading at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $25 4d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $22 4d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $24 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $8 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $7 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $16 5d
England leading at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $13 6d
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $9 6d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 30¢ $7 6d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $12 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $14 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $9 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $11 6d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 43¢ $19 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $18 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $25 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $11 6d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,005.88 · official $1,005.88 (match) · 567 history records