Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9E 0x9e7b…d39d crypto 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 603d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$137 (+1%) realized +$136 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate85%52W / 9L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$610now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% +$24
other 38% +$14
politics 10% +$129
world 4% −$26
economics 4% −$1
sports 3% +$5
tech 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 12 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 61 -11.1% -19.6% 85% 7% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 7% -8.6%
10% -27.3% 2% -17.3%
15% -34.3% 2% -25.3%
20% -40.8% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$21 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$610
Realized+$136
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses52 / 9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)61 / 64
History coverage603d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $330 $333 +$3 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $211 $211 −$0 (-0%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $68 $67 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $210 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 19 $55 +$1 +1%
Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 19 $197 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 19 $230 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 10 $127 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 10 $165 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 10 $168 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 26 $244 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 20 $183 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 20 $227 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Apr 06 $420 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 16 $400 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 03 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? Mar 03 $225 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? Feb 07 $220 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1300 in January? Feb 07 $230 +$1 +1%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026? Jan 19 $55 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 19 $335 +$1 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jan 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Jan 03 $120 +$1 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 03 $420 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 03 $150 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? Jan 03 $245 +$1 +0%
Will BNB reach $1200 in November? Dec 11 $150 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 11 $450 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 25 $180 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Nov 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $230 on October 24? Nov 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? Nov 04 $200 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Oct 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $270 on October 14? Oct 24 $285 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $270 on October 14? Oct 24 $325 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Oct 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 13 $158 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 13 $350 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,500 on September 19? Sep 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum above $4000 on August 15? Sep 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 420–449 times August 8–August 15? Sep 19 $500 +$3 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in July? Aug 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 14 $500 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Jul 26 $350 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times June 13–20? Jul 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 03 $445 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 16 $520 +$1 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in April? May 20 $125 $0 +0%
Will SOL flip ETH before May? May 20 $158 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in April? May 20 $288 +$1 +0%
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days? Apr 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $211 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 7d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $210 27d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $330 29d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $68 29d
Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $230 38d
Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $197 38d
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 38d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 100¢ $127 52d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $165 52d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $168 58d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $244 58d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $227 72d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $183 72d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $420 93d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $400 106d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? BUY No 100¢ $225 130d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $200 130d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY No 24¢ $2 143d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $138 149d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $220 149d
Will BNB reach $1300 in January? BUY No 99¢ $230 165d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $335 165d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 165d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY No 87¢ $15 165d
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $120 188d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $120 188d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $150 188d
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $245 188d
Will BNB reach $1200 in November? BUY No 100¢ $150 204d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $609.85 · official $609.85 (match) · 129 history records