Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:07:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9E 0x9e7c…2d36 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,695 (+80%) realized +$1,736 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +167% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +132% what you keep after slip
Net edge+132%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$1,034now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$28
sports 48% +$1,714
world 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+141.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +167.2% +141.7% 100% 100% +141.7%
≤30d 1 +167.2% +141.7% 100% 100% +141.7%
≤90d 1 +167.2% +141.7% 100% 100% +141.7%
all 1 +167.2% +141.7% 100% 100% +141.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +141.7% 100% +141.7%
10% +118.6% 100% +118.6%
15% +97.5% 100% +97.5%
20% +78.1% 100% +78.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +167% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +167% · $-wt +167% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,714 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$1,034
Realized+$1,736
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1 / 10
History coverage22d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 35¢ $500 $481 −$19 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $75 $76 +$1 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $75 $73 −$2 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $12 −$12 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $1,025 +$1,714 +167%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,034.28 · official $1,034.42 (match) · 19 history records