Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:00:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e7d…a8aa other 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$60 (-0%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%17W / 115L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$13
14 days−$23
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$20
politics 29% −$21
sports 18% −$12
culture 6% −$4
crypto 5% −$4
world 4% −$3
economics 2% −$3
finance 2% −$9
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.8% -10.3% 5% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 64 -0.8% -10.2% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 113 -0.6% -10.1% 10% 0% -9.9%
all 132 -0.6% -10.1% 13% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses17 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage104d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 95¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 21 $154 −$1 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $115 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $156 −$1 -0%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $57 $0 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $108 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $169 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Jun 18 $39 $0 -1%
Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ Jun 18 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $19 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $65 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 16 $67 $0 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $287 −$1 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $116 −$1 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $49 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $58 −$2 -3%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $117 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 13 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $274 −$3 -1%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $61 $0 -1%
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $6 $0 -5%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $59 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 10 $54 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 10 $63 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 10 $59 $0 -0%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 10 $47 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $98 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $118 −$1 -1%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) Jun 07 $51 +$3 +5%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $119 $0 -0%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $33 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $320 −$1 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $51 $0 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 04 $51 −$1 -2%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $37 $0 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $54 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $43 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $10 33m
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $51 6h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $61 7h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $61 15h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $53 15h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $53 21h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 90¢ $48 22h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 91¢ $49 26h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $45 27h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $45 32h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 95¢ $45 32h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 96¢ $46 36h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $57 37h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $57 45h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $45 46h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $44 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $44 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $48 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $39 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $39 3d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $59 3d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $59 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 3d
Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ SELL No 95¢ $59 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.51 · official $9.51 (match) · 522 history records