Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9E
0x9e7e…3e1d
world · 95 markets active 5h ago
2.0score
+$92,021 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$49,498 · open +$22,747
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ High turnover
Net worth$125,973
Realized+$49,498
Unrealized+$22,747
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses61 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)88 / 95
History coverage229d
Avg bet$6,339
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 7 History 88 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33,450
7 days−$29,665
14 days+$1,705
30 days+$2,941
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 70¢ 77¢ $55,017 $60,600 +$5,584 (+10%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 49¢ 79¢ $34,406 $55,056 +$20,650 (+60%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Yes 83¢ 56¢ $8,312 $5,543 −$2,770 (-33%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 76¢ 66¢ $4,308 $3,719 −$589 (-14%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Yes 84¢ 66¢ $621 $488 −$133 (-21%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No 77¢ 77¢ $462 $462 +$0 (+0%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $99 $105 +$6 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $20,804 −$5,778 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $84,310 −$22,062 -26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $15,459 −$3,062 -20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $9,048 −$2,426 -27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 12 $188 −$62 -33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $280 −$60 -21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $45,720 +$3,768 +8%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 07 $391 +$17 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 07 $10,106 +$5,460 +54%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 06 $63 +$18 +28%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 06 $1,010 +$83 +8%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? Jun 05 $479 +$114 +24%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $1,400 +$180 +13%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $29,906 +$6,765 +23%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $273 +$126 +46%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $561 +$255 +45%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 6% an Jun 03 $24 −$4 -19%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $559 +$99 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 02 $420 +$190 +45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $70,223 +$17,804 +25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $720 +$280 +39%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? May 27 $243 +$196 +80%
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? May 27 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? May 22 $385 +$135 +35%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju May 19 $504 +$130 +26%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $810 +$140 +17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $810 +$150 +18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 16 $890 +$110 +12%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 15 $1,078 +$377 +35%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 10 $953 +$47 +5%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $10 −$7 -69%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $1,100 +$6 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 15 $242 +$858 +354%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 03 $240 −$240 -100%
Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $521 −$521 -100%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? Mar 26 $87 +$32 +37%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Mar 25 $1,121 +$43 +4%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Mar 23 $4,281 +$2,420 +56%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? Mar 20 $8 −$2 -27%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 19 $4,590 +$1,641 +36%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 18 $215 +$250 +117%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 17 $83 −$4 -5%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Mar 17 $255 −$96 -38%
Will Golden - KPop Demon Hunters win Best Original Song at the 98th Ac Mar 16 $100 +$16 +16%
Will F1 win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $100 +$27 +27%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academ Mar 16 $100 +$30 +30%
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Mar 16 $100 +$54 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 72% −$2,740
economics 12% +$55,965
politics 11% +$10,389
other 3% +$7,835
crypto 0% +$180
culture 0% +$617
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 55¢ $1,101 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 55¢ $275 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 55¢ $165 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 55¢ $659 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 54¢ $2,700 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 53¢ $1,590 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 52¢ $1,040 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 52¢ $130 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 51¢ $380 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 51¢ $517 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 51¢ $122 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 51¢ $76 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 50¢ $190 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 50¢ $54 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 50¢ $256 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 49¢ $245 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $960 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $240 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $940 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $141 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 46¢ $460 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 46¢ $99 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 46¢ $16 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $768 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $90 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $415 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 75¢ $296 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 75¢ $4 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 76¢ $6 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 76¢ $85 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -17.8% -25.7% 25% 0% -24.8%
≤30d 30 +16.6% +5.5% 73% 63% -8.6%
≤90d 46 +12.4% +1.7% 65% 52% -7.4%
all 88 +45.9% +32.0% 69% 51% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +32.0% 51% +1.8%
10% ← realistic here +19.4% 43% -7.9%
15% +7.9% 32% -16.8%
20% -2.7% 22% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125,972.80 · official $126,007.80 (match) · 3500 history records