Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:43:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9E 0x9e7e…ab3e other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 612d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate84%27W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$17
other 36% $0
crypto 7% $0
world 3% +$1
tech 1% $0
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 4 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 13 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 32 +1.5% -8.2% 84% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 3% -9.8%
10% -17.0% 3% -18.4%
15% -25.0% 3% -26.3%
20% -32.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

612d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses27 / 5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)32 / 36
History coverage612d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $101 $102 +$1 (+1%)
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Jun 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 26 $37 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? May 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 24 $99 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Apr 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Apr 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Apr 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 22 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 22 $43 $0 +0%
Magic vs. Thunder Mar 19 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Mar 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? Mar 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? Mar 19 $62 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026? Feb 03 $119 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Jan 19 $4 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 19 $26 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? Jan 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025? Jan 19 $80 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Nov 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Nov 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Sep 27 $12 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in July? Aug 18 $12 $0 +0%
Neither a Democrat nor a Republican wins popular vote? Oct 24 $982 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 24 $697 −$15 -2%
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 24 $687 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Oct 22 $698 −$1 -0%
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 22 $399 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 1h
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 32d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 33d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 99¢ $37 33d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 33d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 33d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $99 65d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 65d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 65d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $43 99d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $17 99d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 99d
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 99d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 99d
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 143d
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 BUY No 100¢ $12 143d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 143d
Magic vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 71¢ $5 143d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $23 143d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $119 158d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 158d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $80 210d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $26 210d
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $4 210d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $45 210d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $20 272d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $20 272d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.90 · official $158.90 (match) · 103 history records