Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:18:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

9E 0x9e7f…ba5d crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR53%break-even

Win rate68%13W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$7per market

Trades / day30.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +53%

net ROI/market (all)-11.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-1.8%	-11.2%	68%	53%	-17.2%
≤30d	19	-1.8%	-11.2%	68%	53%	-17.2%
≤90d	19	-1.8%	-11.2%	68%	53%	-17.2%
all	19	-1.8%	-11.2%	68%	53%	-17.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover30.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-11.2%	53%	-17.2%
10% ← realistic here	-19.7%	42%	-25.1%
15%	-27.4%	42%	-32.3%
20%	-34.5%	26%	-39.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 50% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

23% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +5% → late -8% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.75 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$2

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)68%

Wins / losses13 / 6

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)19 / 19

History coverage1d

Avg bet$7

Trades / day30.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 19 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Jun 16	$2	+$1	+36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Jun 16	$5	$0	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Jun 16	$3	+$3	+97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$2	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$1	+20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$1	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Jun 16	$5	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$3	+62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Jun 16	$30	−$22	-71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$4	+77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Jun 16	$5	$0	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$3	+51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Jun 16	$21	+$10	+50%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$10	+$8	+74%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	BUY Up	72¢	$2	50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Down	94¢	$5	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	SELL Up	79¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	BUY Up	75¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$3	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	BUY Up	67¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	BUY Down	5¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	BUY Up	82¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	BUY Down	83¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$9	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	BUY Down	92¢	$25	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$9	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	BUY Up	54¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	SELL Up	87¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	BUY Up	84¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$8	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	SELL Up	84¢	$31	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$5	3h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$18	6h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	56¢	$10	6h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records