Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:22:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9E 0x9e80…f694 sports 275 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$29,697 (+1%) realized +$28,731 · open +$966
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate77%194W / 58L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$7,629per market
Trades / day41.9pace
Fees−$2,566est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$72,498now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,969
7 days+$2,597
14 days+$5,886
30 days+$13,756
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$19,748
other 24% +$6,587
politics 16% −$228
sports 15% +$13,369
crypto 7% +$1,947
finance 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +0.1% -9.4% 86% 10% -8.3%
≤30d 94 +8.1% -2.2% 78% 18% -8.4%
≤90d 252 +12.1% +1.4% 77% 13% -7.7%
all 252 +12.1% +1.4% 77% 13% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.4% 13% -7.7%
10% -8.3% 10% -16.6%
15% ← realistic here -17.2% 8% -24.6%
20% -25.3% 5% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$5,838) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$221 vs −$68 · ×3.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×18.4 per $1 lost it wins $18.4
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$72,498
Realized+$28,731
Unrealized+$966
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses194 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$2,566
Open positions22
Markets (closed)252 / 275
History coverage75d ⚠
Avg bet$7,629
Trades / day41.9
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 252 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $26,643 $27,662 +$1,019 (+4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $9,960 $9,955 −$5 (-0%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? No 95¢ 94¢ $7,941 $7,851 −$90 (-1%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 95¢ 95¢ $5,010 $5,008 −$1 (-0%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner SPARTA 49¢ 50¢ $4,166 $4,208 +$43 (+1%)
World Cup: Highest Scoring Match Record Broken? No 96¢ 92¢ $4,218 $4,028 −$190 (-5%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $2,400 $2,388 −$12 (-1%)
World Cup: Largest Margin of Victory Record Broken? No 94¢ 94¢ $2,213 $2,218 +$5 (+0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 80¢ 78¢ $1,713 $1,663 −$51 (-3%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $1,227 $1,245 +$18 (+1%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 92¢ $1,047 $1,030 −$17 (-2%)
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 31¢ 43¢ $719 $1,003 +$284 (+39%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $984 $980 −$4 (-0%)
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 80¢ 79¢ $785 $776 −$9 (-1%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $760 $752 −$8 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage SPARTA 49¢ 50¢ $646 $653 +$7 (+1%)
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $495 $497 +$2 (+0%)
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 52¢ 48¢ $347 $316 −$31 (-9%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? No 70¢ 60¢ $123 $106 −$18 (-14%)
Will Rúben Dias be in Portugal's Starting 11? No 99¢ 100¢ $101 $102 +$1 (+1%)
Will there be 15+ VAR decisions overturned during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 12¢ $16 $29 +$13 (+77%)
Betmoar FDV above $20M one day after launch? No 26¢ 44¢ $17 $28 +$11 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $5,461 +$416 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $5,370 +$624 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1,910 +$86 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 16 $4,823 +$377 +8%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 16 $845 +$4 +0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $8,563 +$355 +4%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $1,390 +$107 +8%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2,505 −$24 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 15 $22,931 +$46 +0%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $77 −$77 -100%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 13 $8,976 +$309 +3%
Will Victoria Mboko be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 12 $6,932 +$9 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $77,844 +$111 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21,399 +$21 +0%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $51 +$25 +50%
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Leandro Riedi Jun 11 $1,117 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,103 −$18 -2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $617 +$11 +2%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $11,863 +$167 +1%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $839 +$10 +1%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $1,819 +$37 +2%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $20 −$19 -95%
Exact Score: Equatorial Guinea 0 - 0 Comoros? Jun 10 $2,351 +$52 +2%
Set Handicap: Kostyuk (-1.5) vs Stojsavljevic (+1.5) Jun 09 $56 $0 +0%
HSBC Championships: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 09 $67 $0 -0%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $23,250 +$24 +0%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs Clutchain (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Pl Jun 09 $487 +$15 +3%
Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $78 +$72 +92%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $12,000 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $92 +$26 +28%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $186 −$43 -23%
Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros: Draw at halftime? Jun 08 $9,425 +$263 +3%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $3,713 +$233 +6%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $29,729 +$747 +2%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $69,860 +$112 +0%
Rebecca Sramkova vs. Tara Wurth: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $147 $0 +0%
Makarska: Rebecca Sramkova vs Tara Wurth Jun 04 $1,953 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $108,342 +$1,804 +2%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $509 +$27 +5%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $1,007 +$16 +2%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 02 $9,967 +$487 +5%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $39 +$1 +3%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $46 +$1 +2%
Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5) Jun 02 $5,838 +$1,608 +28%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 02 $8,912 +$515 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $32 +$8 +26%
Will Harry Kane have the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 Champi Jun 02 $859 −$798 -93%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? Jun 02 $380 −$380 -100%
Perugia: Remy Bertola vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 02 $73 $0 +0%
Dota 2: unknow vs BALU - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $1,576 +$16 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 100¢ $8,964 49m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 100¢ $996 49m
Will Rúben Dias be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 99¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 49¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 49¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 49¢ $245 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 49¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 49¢ $140 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 49¢ $288 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $7,984 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 49¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 49¢ $150 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 49¢ $502 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 49¢ $65 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 49¢ $900 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 49¢ $49 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,994 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 100¢ $440 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 49¢ $1,849 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 49¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 49¢ $597 1h
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 76¢ $4 2h
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 75¢ $452 2h
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 76¢ $4 2h
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 99¢ $495 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $435 6h
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $2,403 7h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 86¢ $152 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,877 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,994 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72,497.50 · official $72,497.50 (match) · 3500 history records