Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:05:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e81…e973 sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$135 (-5%) realized −$135 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +376% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +330% what you keep after slip
Net edge+330%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%5W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$122
7 days+$122
14 days+$122
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$23
other 3% −$17
crypto 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+330.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +4.0% -5.9% 50% 50% +0.7%
≤30d 8 -16.0% -24.0% 12% 12% -7.1%
≤90d 10 -14.0% -22.2% 10% 10% -10.3%
all 18 +375.7% +330.4% 28% 28% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +330.4% 28% -10.7%
10% +289.2% 22% -19.2%
15% +251.6% 22% -27.0%
20% +217.2% 22% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +376% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +766% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$15 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage120d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 25 $1,002 +$125 +12%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 25 $72 −$3 -4%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $59 −$16 -26%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $198 −$8 -4%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $80 −$19 -24%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $107 −$21 -19%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $39 −$15 -37%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $8 −$2 -26%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 23 $1,136 −$63 -6%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 22 $36 −$2 -6%
Will AAVE be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $1 $0 +5%
Will Base be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $33 −$15 -46%
Will Tether be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $40 −$20 -49%
Will Upbit be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $42 −$9 -21%
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $21 +$6 +30%
Will Ethena be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $0 $0 +38%
Will Bybit be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $1 $0 +39%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 24 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 93¢ $320 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 87¢ $301 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 28¢ $125 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 22¢ $102 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 82¢ $395 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 62¢ $303 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 62¢ $89 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 60¢ $88 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 60¢ $97 2h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 61¢ $101 2h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) SELL Houston Astros 71¢ $19 2h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 46¢ $97 2h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 47¢ $102 2h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 78¢ $21 2h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) SELL Houston Astros 69¢ $50 3h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 69¢ $50 3h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 56¢ $5 8h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 57¢ $5 8h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 8¢ $5 15d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 61¢ $24 15d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ $19 15d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 25¢ $29 15d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 25¢ $30 15d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 5¢ $1 15d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 7¢ $3 15d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 16¢ $0 15d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 9¢ $6 15d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 16¢ $3 15d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 22¢ $9 15d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 17¢ $12 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 350 history records