Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:55:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e83…593d weather 1184 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$668 (+2%) realized +$668 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%1149W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day49.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$633now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$31
14 days+$47
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$6
other 1% +$47
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 +0.6% -9.0% 99% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 581 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 1166 +0.4% -9.2% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 1166 +0.4% -9.2% 99% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 0% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$35 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$633
Realized+$668
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1149 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)1166 / 1184
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day49.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 1166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 19? No 97¢ 98¢ $35 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 17? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $35 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? No 97¢ 97¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 18? No 99¢ 98¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? No 99¢ 93¢ $36 $33 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 17 $35 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 17? Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $35 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 18? Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $35 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $34 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 18? Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 17? Jun 16 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 16 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 88°F or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $36 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $35 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $35 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 15 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $35 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 16? Jun 15 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 15 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 16? Jun 15 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $36 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 15? Jun 15 $36 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $35 28m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $0 32m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $5 33m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $2 33m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $35 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $35 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $35 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $44 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $35 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $35 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $35 4h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $32 4h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $35 4h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $35 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $35 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $632.63 · official $632.63 (match) · 3500 history records