Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e83…9394 weather 358 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$15,348 (+335%) realized +$15,221 · open +$127
Gross ROI / mkt +632% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +463% what you keep after slip
Net edge+463%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%304W / 277L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day63.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,641now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 50d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 51% +$979
other 44% +$352
world 4% +$342
politics 0% −$5
tech 0% +$14
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+561.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 390 +889.6% +795.4% 59% 58% -37.9%
≤30d 491 +724.6% +646.0% 54% 52% -9.8%
≤90d 581 +631.6% +561.9% 52% 49% +4.1%
all 581 +631.6% +561.9% 52% 49% +4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +561.9% 49% +4.1%
10% ← realistic here +498.6% 48% -5.9%
15% +440.8% 47% -15.0%
20% +387.7% 46% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +62% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +632% · $-wt +62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +81% → late +1180% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$5 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.14 per $1 lost it wins $3.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$1,641
Realized+$15,221
Unrealized+$127
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses304 / 277
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions105
Markets (closed)581 / 358
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day63.8
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 105 History 581 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 82¢ 94¢ $286 $329 +$43 (+15%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 87¢ 96¢ $284 $312 +$28 (+10%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $188 $198 +$10 (+5%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 85¢ 99¢ $170 $197 +$27 (+16%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 86¢ 90¢ $145 $151 +$6 (+4%)
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $70 $85 +$15 (+21%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 74¢ 80¢ $74 $80 +$6 (+7%)
Will Kanye West and Bianca Censori separate in 2026? No 55¢ 80¢ $33 $49 +$15 (+46%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 75¢ 88¢ $38 $44 +$6 (+17%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 26¢ 15¢ $52 $30 −$22 (-42%)
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 67¢ 93¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+39%)
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? No 71¢ 61¢ $21 $18 −$3 (-14%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 63¢ 88¢ $13 $18 +$5 (+39%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $13 +$1 (+10%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes $24 $11 −$13 (-54%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13 $10 −$3 (-20%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $10 +$5 (+118%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $8 $9 +$1 (+7%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 85¢ 74¢ $9 $7 −$1 (-13%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $7 −$1 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? No 86¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison? Yes $1 $2 +$2 (+292%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-47%)
Will Microsoft have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 393 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hikari win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 15 $0 +$2 +2039500%
Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Jalen Hurts win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Jun 15 $0 +$2 +717900%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Jun 15 $0 $0 +73960%
Will the highest temperature in London be 1°C on January 5? Jun 15 $0 $0 +14233%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 15 $0 +$11 +1571186%
Will Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova win the 2025 US Open? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 15 $0 +$5 +833233%
Will MAS‑IPSP win the most seats in the next Bolivia Senate election? Jun 15 $0 $0 +11759%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Jun 15 $0 +$25 +3124900%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jun 15 $0 +$11 +871385%
Will 'Cloud 9' - Megan Moroney debut week album sales be between 30k a Jun 15 $0 $0 +9900%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Jun 15 $0 +$2 +1111900%
Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 15 $0 +$19 +3704880%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 29? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will T.J. Watt win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Jun 15 $0 $0 +23678%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 15 $0 −$1 -79290%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on December 23? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Solana reach $190 in November? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +12374%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 16? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 15 $0 +$5 +555344%
Linea FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on April 13? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Meta have the top AI model on September 30? Jun 15 $0 +$2 +323943%
Will Caroline Weir win the 2025 Women’s Ballon d’Or? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair? Jun 15 $0 +$15 +7482250%
Will The Weeknd be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Jun 15 $0 +$21 +21167900%
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +13042%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -88%
Will Dom Taylor win the PDC World Darts Championship? Jun 15 $0 $0 +19111%
Will Myles Garrett win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +110900%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 2? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sandy Baltimore win the 2025 Women’s Ballon d’Or? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Ja Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Jun 15 $0 $0 +201450%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 15 $0 +$1 +21503%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Jun 15 $0 +$13 +873180%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 15 $0 +$7 +647773%
Will JB Straubel be announced as the next CEO of Tesla? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C or below on January 17? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 11? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 16? Jun 15 $0 +$2 +19301%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 15 $0 +$10 +1424043%
Will Přísaha get between 7% and 9% of the vote in the Czech election? Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 31? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on October 2 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 15 $0 +$25 +4999700%
Will Geno Smith win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +110900%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 14m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 16? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 16? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 16? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 16? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 16? BUY Yes $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 16? BUY Yes $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? SELL Yes $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 16? BUY Yes $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 16? BUY Yes $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 16? BUY Yes $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 16? BUY Yes $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 16? BUY Yes $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? SELL Yes $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,641.26 · official $1,638.43 (match) · 3500 history records