Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:49:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9E 0x9e84…6624 other 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$22 (+4%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%35W / 89L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$222
14 days+$207
30 days+$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$132
other 42% +$94
crypto 6% −$3
world 4% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +37.1% +24.0% 27% 25% +76.0%
≤30d 124 +4.7% -5.3% 28% 26% +34.9%
≤90d 124 +4.7% -5.3% 28% 26% +34.9%
all 124 +4.7% -5.3% 28% 26% +34.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 26% +34.9%
10% -14.4% 26% +22.0%
15% -22.6% 24% +10.2%
20% -30.2% 20% -0.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$2 · ×5.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses35 / 89
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)124 / 140
History coverage14d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 124 Trades
no open positions (68 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? Jun 28 $5 +$78 +1519%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 −$1 -11%
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $2 +$12 +595%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $10 +$4 +40%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $5 +$2 +33%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -62%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $1 +$5 +474%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $56 +$139 +248%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND W Jun 23 $10 +$33 +318%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $1 +$3 +291%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $1 +$6 +596%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 +$27 +873%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-2 Jun 21 $8 +$8 +95%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 6h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 6h
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $10 14h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $11 15h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY 49¢ $8 30h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $10 38h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY 46¢ $10 38h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Norway 65¢ $10 38h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 22¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL 91¢ $14 2d
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY 64¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 16¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 44¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 208 history records