Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:52:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9E 0x9e86…6dfb sports 81 markets active 3h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$26,037 (+32%) realized +$26,037 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate48%39W / 42L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$993per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$1,076est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24,952
7 days+$24,952
14 days+$24,952
30 days+$24,179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$25,273
crypto 1% −$153
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +4.9% -5.1% 55% 50% +38.8%
≤30d 26 -4.2% -13.3% 50% 46% +36.5%
≤90d 51 +27.9% +15.7% 49% 39% +30.7%
all 81 +7.6% -2.6% 48% 36% +22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 36% +22.0%
10% -12.0% 27% +10.3%
15% -20.5% 23% -0.4%
20% -28.3% 21% -10.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$979) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -31% → late +46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$945 vs −$280 · ×3.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.14 per $1 lost it wins $3.14
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26,037
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses39 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$1,076
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage92d
Avg bet$993
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera Jun 24 $11,313 +$22,834 +202%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic Jun 24 $2,005 +$286 +14%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Francisca Jorge vs Lina Gjorcheska Jun 24 $1,378 +$101 +7%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 24 $2,904 +$1,092 +38%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng Jun 24 $6,409 −$20 -0%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katherine Sebov vs Noma Noha Akugue Jun 24 $947 +$538 +57%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy Jun 24 $1,634 −$36 -2%
Mallorca Championships: Murphy Cassone vs Ethan Quinn Jun 24 $230 −$9 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $81 −$78 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 24 $113 +$26 +23%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lola Radivojevic vs Marina Bassols Riber Jun 23 $4,219 +$617 +15%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $1,936 +$326 +17%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Katy Dunne Jun 23 $2,146 +$2,142 +100%
Set 1 Winner: Sasnovich vs Dunne Jun 23 $1,442 −$1,442 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $3,831 +$1,926 +50%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar Jun 23 $2,253 −$2,253 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Amelia Rajecki vs Suzan Lamens Jun 23 $1,243 −$881 -71%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Iryna Shymanovich Jun 23 $985 +$1,749 +178%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Mia Pohankova Jun 23 $996 −$979 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Taylah Preston Jun 23 $989 −$989 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 04 $44 −$43 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 04 $39 +$9 +23%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $19 +$32 +169%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $675 −$670 -99%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner May 29 $240 −$99 -41%
Penguins vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5 Apr 13 $587 +$494 +84%
Sarasota: Yibing Wu vs Stefan Dostanic Apr 12 $1,003 −$49 -5%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs UNiTY esports (BO1) - Conquest of Prague Apr 12 $201 +$34 +17%
Campinas: Gonzalo Bueno vs Gustavo Heide Apr 12 $886 +$64 +7%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Apr 12 $1,140 +$55 +5%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Hashiras - Map 1 Winner Apr 12 $570 −$117 -20%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Hashiras - Map 2 Winner Apr 12 $180 −$168 -93%
Barcelona Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Pedro Martinez Apr 12 $552 +$81 +15%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Mirra Andreeva vs Anastasia Potapova Apr 12 $20 −$19 -97%
US Men's Clay Court Championships, Qualification: Liam Draxl vs Alexis Mar 29 $812 −$812 -100%
US Men's Clay Court Championships, Qualification: Alex Bolt vs Andres Mar 29 $440 +$374 +85%
Copa Colsanitas, Qualification: Miriana Tona vs Lia Karatancheva Mar 29 $261 −$261 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Mar 27 $2,072 +$120 +6%
Sao Paulo: Juan Carlos Prado vs Gonzalo Bueno Mar 27 $848 +$76 +9%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner Mar 27 $712 +$451 +63%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Mar 27 $1,126 +$273 +24%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner Mar 27 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - CCT South Ame Mar 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs Game Hunters - Map 2 Winner Mar 27 $79 −$79 -100%
Counter-Strike: Back to Back vs Keyd - Map 1 Winner Mar 27 $240 −$105 -44%
Miami Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Tommy Paul Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: MINLATE vs Rebels Gaming - Map 1 Winner Mar 27 $70 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera SELL Marina Bassols Ribera 100¢ $34,147 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 44¢ $757 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 44¢ $3,715 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 44¢ $157 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 44¢ $1,377 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 40¢ $326 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 32¢ $2 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 32¢ $2 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 32¢ $0 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 32¢ $39 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 32¢ $9 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 32¢ $142 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 29¢ $31 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 29¢ $5 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 29¢ $8 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 29¢ $6 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 29¢ $6 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 29¢ $71 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 29¢ $13 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 29¢ $1 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 29¢ $12 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 29¢ $384 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 29¢ $2 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 29¢ $242 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 29¢ $59 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 29¢ $1 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 29¢ $35 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 29¢ $52 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 27¢ $3 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 27¢ $13 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 629 history records