Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:17:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e88…6ed7 crypto 378 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$71 (+2%) realized +$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate78%295W / 82L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day27.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$40
14 days+$70
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$46
other 1% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 -1.9% -11.3% 72% 19% -8.0%
≤30d 377 -0.7% -10.1% 78% 30% -7.9%
≤90d 377 -0.7% -10.1% 78% 30% -7.9%
all 377 -0.7% -10.1% 78% 30% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 30% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 18% -16.7%
15% -26.6% 12% -24.8%
20% -33.8% 9% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses295 / 82
Open positions0
Markets (closed)377 / 378
History coverage16d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day27.7
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 377 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $57 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $56 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $55 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $54 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $48 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $47 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $46 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $45 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $43 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $41 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $39 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $38 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $38 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $38 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $33 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $33 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $33 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$1 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $22 +$11 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $57 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $56 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $55 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $48 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $47 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $43 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $42 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $42 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $39 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $38 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $39 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $38 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $38 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $36 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $37 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $37 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 782 history records