Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:06:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9E
0x9e88…301c
finance · 430 markets active 2h ago
6.5score
+$26,100 +16%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$21,107 · open +$2,211
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY finance specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$18,075
Realized+$21,107
Unrealized+$2,211
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses219 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions69
Markets (closed)361 / 430
History coverage82d
Avg bet$385
Trades / day38.2
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 69 History 361 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$224
7 days+$4,003
14 days+$4,938
30 days+$5,224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B? No 51¢ 62¢ $1,243 $1,533 +$290 (+23%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $135B by June 30? No 89¢ 92¢ $1,157 $1,192 +$35 (+3%)
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.1B? No 74¢ 78¢ $815 $859 +$44 (+5%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $185B by June 30? No 48¢ 94¢ $434 $856 +$422 (+97%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by June 30? No 79¢ 88¢ $694 $775 +$80 (+12%)
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $13.5B by June 30? No 46¢ 76¢ $455 $757 +$302 (+66%)
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B? No 36¢ 55¢ $486 $750 +$264 (+54%)
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1% and 1.5%? Yes 41¢ 43¢ $652 $687 +$35 (+5%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by December 31? No 37¢ 68¢ $289 $541 +$252 (+87%)
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.1B? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $442 $503 +$61 (+14%)
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B? Yes 51¢ 45¢ $572 $501 −$71 (-12%)
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%? No 56¢ 66¢ $408 $479 +$71 (+17%)
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $363 $381 +$18 (+5%)
FDA approves Ionis' Olezarsen? Yes 78¢ 90¢ $304 $350 +$46 (+15%)
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $8B by December 31? Yes 19¢ 40¢ $153 $326 +$173 (+113%)
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between -1.5% and 0%? Yes 25¢ 40¢ $200 $316 +$116 (+58%)
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $19B by June 30? No 30¢ 66¢ $140 $310 +$170 (+121%)
FDA approves Viridian Therapeutics' Veligrotug? Yes 72¢ 73¢ $290 $294 +$4 (+1%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $135B by December 31? No 75¢ 68¢ $319 $292 −$27 (-8%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $145B by June 30? No 32¢ 84¢ $108 $286 +$178 (+165%)
Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $3.1B? No 70¢ 80¢ $216 $249 +$32 (+15%)
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $37.5B by June 30? No 58¢ 80¢ $176 $242 +$65 (+37%)
Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $2.9B? No 43¢ 59¢ $173 $235 +$62 (+36%)
FDA approves Arcutis' Zoryve cream? Yes 79¢ 89¢ $208 $235 +$27 (+13%)
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by June 30? No 84¢ 90¢ $201 $217 +$16 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lennar (LEN) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $45 −$25 -55%
Will RH (RH) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $1,359 +$243 +18%
Will Adobe (ADBE) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $601 +$61 +10%
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $110B by June 30? Jun 11 $269 +$21 +8%
Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1. Jun 10 $321 +$139 +43%
Will Oracle (ORCL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 10 $241 −$216 -89%
Will Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $71 −$51 -72%
Will Casey's General Stores (CASY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $812 +$204 +25%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.1B? Jun 09 $146 +$143 +98%
Will Academy Sports (ASO) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $17 +$3 +15%
Will Designer Brands (DBI) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $1,281 +$344 +27%
Will Vail Resorts (MTN) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $514 +$285 +56%
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $2,933 +$2,030 +69%
Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $907 +$1,085 +120%
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $13.5B by December 31? Jun 07 $267 −$53 -20%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $555 −$555 -100%
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $12.5B by December 31? Jun 06 $64 +$6 +10%
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $9B by June 30? Jun 06 $376 +$112 +30%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $10.75B by June 30? Jun 06 $105 −$73 -70%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $10.5B by June 30? Jun 06 $83 −$19 -23%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $10B by June 30? Jun 06 $337 +$48 +14%
Will JM Smucker (SJM) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $18B by June 30? Jun 05 $113 +$272 +240%
Will Chewy (CHWY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 05 $35 −$35 -100%
Will United Natural Foods (UNFI) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 04 $693 −$61 -9%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $17,325 +$175 +1%
Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $7B by June 30? Jun 03 $160 +$50 +31%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 31 $1,480 +$60 +4%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by June 30? May 29 $21 +$15 +71%
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $40B by June 30? May 29 $213 +$730 +342%
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $12.5B by June 30? May 28 $335 −$262 -78%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $172.5B by June 30? May 28 $90 −$87 -97%
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $17.5B by June 30? May 23 $239 −$40 -17%
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by June 30? May 23 $55 −$2 -4%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31? May 23 $563 −$13 -2%
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $80B by June 30? May 23 $1,364 −$119 -9%
Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 15-20%? May 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30? May 21 $149 +$32 +21%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $160B by June 30? May 21 $1,657 +$272 +16%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30? May 21 $2,181 +$304 +14%
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $41B by June 30? May 21 $174 +$6 +3%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31? May 21 $219 +$64 +29%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $160B by December 31? May 21 $148 +$65 +44%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by June 30? May 21 $173 +$65 +38%
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $41.5B by June 30? May 21 $78 +$63 +82%
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $12.75B by June 30? May 21 $220 −$215 -97%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12B by June 30? May 21 $266 +$59 +22%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $11.25B by June 30? May 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $17.5B by December 31? May 21 $96 −$93 -97%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $11.5B by June 30? May 21 $132 +$235 +178%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
finance 47% +$17,373
other 22% +$4,125
politics 17% +$1,891
crypto 11% −$379
sports 1% +$280
tech 0% +$7
world 0% −$3
economics 0% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 2h
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B? BUY No 54¢ $6 2h
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 2h
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B? BUY No 54¢ $6 2h
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 2h
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 2h
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B? BUY No 54¢ $6 2h
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B? BUY No 54¢ $6 2h
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 2h
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B? BUY No 54¢ $6 2h
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between -3% and -1.5 BUY Yes 13¢ $2 4h
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.35B? SELL No 10¢ $67 5h
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 15h
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 15h
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 15h
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B? BUY No 54¢ $8 15h
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 6¢ $23 17h
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.15B? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 18h
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $95B by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $60 19h
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.25B SELL Yes 33¢ $99 19h
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $110B by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $290 20h
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $95B by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $47 20h
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $9B by December 31? BUY No 75¢ $43 20h
Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $5B by December 31? BUY No 94¢ $13 20h
Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $5B by December 31? BUY No 94¢ $67 20h
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $9B by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $3 20h
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31? BUY No 94¢ $43 20h
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31? BUY No 91¢ $153 20h
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $165B by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $36 20h
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $135B by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $1,162 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +7.6% -2.6% 65% 52% +22.5%
≤30d 57 +1.3% -8.4% 61% 49% +2.8%
≤90d 361 +39.4% +26.1% 61% 41% +3.7%
all 361 +39.4% +26.1% 61% 41% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover38.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.1% 41% +3.7%
10% ← realistic here +14.1% 27% -6.2%
15% +3.0% 18% -15.3%
20% -7.1% 15% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,075.09 · official $18,074.20 (match) · 3500 history records