Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:15:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e8c…f74c world 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%20W / 38L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$9
other 18% $0
politics 15% $0
crypto 9% $0
sports 6% $0
economics 4% $0
culture 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.1% -8.5% 33% 11% -7.3%
≤30d 19 +0.2% -9.3% 37% 5% -8.2%
≤90d 19 +0.2% -9.3% 37% 5% -8.2%
all 58 +0.3% -9.3% 34% 2% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 2% -8.8%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.5%
20% -33.2% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×10.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.73 per $1 lost it wins $14.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses20 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage279d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $65 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $15 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $66 +$8 +12%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $47 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 18 $73 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $1 $0 -14%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $25 $0 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 30 $24 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $49 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $2 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $1 $0 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $36 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $18 $0 -0%
Will Jay Kelly win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Oct 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 08 $10 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Oct 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Oct 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 06 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic a Oct 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Oct 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 01 $30 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 01 $11 $0 +2%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 30 $17 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Sep 29 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $6 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 28 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Sep 28 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $32 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $10 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $44 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 49¢ $36 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 49¢ $4 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 49¢ $5 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 49¢ $35 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $4 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $18 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $22 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 35h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $47 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $47 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $25 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $8 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $17 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 231 history records