Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:34:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9E
0x9e8d…d46c
other · 141 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$1,047 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,048 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$782
Realized−$1,048
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses32 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)139 / 141
Avg bet$1,146
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 2 History 139 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$67
14 days+$112
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $414 $415 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $366 $366 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2,186 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,050 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,809 −$3 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 08 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $2,294 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,202 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,961 −$3 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $51 +$84 +165%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $597 −$1 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 03 $59 +$59 +101%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,756 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $248 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $6,757 −$7 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,009 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,677 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $1,672 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $643 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $548 −$1 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 25 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,580 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,712 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $2,445 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $2,752 −$3 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 22 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 21 $827 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $3,903 −$6 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 10 $1,272 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $2,561 −$3 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $3,774 −$5 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,186 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $8,625 −$9 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $2,391 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $2,608 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,206 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $2,546 −$3 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $1,123 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $1,191 −$1 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 04 $1,077 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $1,756 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $1,002 −$1 -0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 29 $1,398 −$1,398 -100%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1,686 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,537 −$2 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $2,162 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $1,342 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $1,628 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 55% −$1,497
politics 29% −$58
sports 10% +$508
economics 3% +$1
world 2% +$2
culture 1% −$3
tech 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $366 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $777 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $778 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $513 3d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $514 3d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $559 3d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $560 3d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $705 4d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $706 4d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $769 4d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $770 4d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $710 4d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $711 4d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $694 4d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $695 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $627 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $628 5d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $803 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $804 6d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Toronto Blue Jays 37¢ $51 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $596 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $597 9d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $506 9d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $507 10d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $607 10d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $608 10d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $59 10d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $601 10d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $602 10d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $473 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +16.4% +5.3% 10% 10% -9.0%
≤30d 30 +2.1% -7.6% 10% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 85 -8.3% -17.0% 8% 6% -10.7%
all 139 +4.6% -5.4% 23% 14% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 14% -10.1%
10% -14.4% 13% -18.7%
15% -22.7% 12% -26.6%
20% -30.3% 11% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $781.58 · official $781.58 (match) · 439 history records