Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:58:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9E 0x9e8d…0bf1 other 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$58 (-0%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate11%11W / 87L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$16
politics 25% −$7
sports 5% −$36
economics 4% −$1
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 23% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 98 -5.2% -14.2% 11% 5% -9.7%
all 98 -5.2% -14.2% 11% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 5% -9.7%
10% -22.4% 5% -18.4%
15% -29.9% 5% -26.3%
20% -36.8% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$171
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses11 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage90d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $171 $171 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $271 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $166 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $307 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $320 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $48 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 05 $64 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 05 $97 $0 +0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 29 $69 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $39 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 27 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 23 $47 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $251 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $895 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $253 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $741 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $250 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $912 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $261 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $252 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? May 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $762 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $252 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $257 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $773 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $257 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 18 $257 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $251 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $261 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $258 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $265 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $261 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $438 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $244 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $799 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $270 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $255 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $253 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 12 $259 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 12 $252 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $259 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $262 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 11 $267 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $260 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $267 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 10 $257 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $52 59m
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $52 2h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $171 7h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $45 25h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $45 29h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $166 3d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 6d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 6d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 6d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $51 12d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $51 12d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $48 13d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 14d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $32 22d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $39 22d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $32 22d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $39 23d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $64 23d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $46 23d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $47 24d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $36 25d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 25d
Will Solana reach $130 in May? BUY No 100¢ $97 28d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $47 28d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $47 28d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $31 30d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $31 30d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 31d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170.84 · official $170.84 (match) · 273 history records