Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:25:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9E 0x9e94…8953 other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$317 (-2%) realized −$313 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%37W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$350per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$330now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$16
14 days+$23
30 days−$240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$19
other 22% −$247
tech 9% +$14
world 7% +$7
politics 4% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.7%
≤30d 19 -3.2% -12.4% 95% 0% -17.5%
≤90d 30 -2.4% -11.7% 93% 0% -12.9%
all 39 -1.8% -11.2% 95% 0% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -11.3%
10% -19.7% 0% -19.8%
15% -27.4% 0% -27.5%
20% -34.5% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$761) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$178 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$330
Realized−$313
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses37 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)39 / 42
History coverage130d
Avg bet$350
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 19? No 100¢ 99¢ $149 $147 −$1 (-1%)
Will the price of XRP be above $0.60 on June 19? Yes 100¢ 98¢ $109 $107 −$2 (-1%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 19? No 100¢ 99¢ $76 $75 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, Jun 16 $111 +$6 +5%
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $106 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $169 +$4 +2%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $7.00-$8.00 on the final day of trading Jun 12 $148 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $156 +$4 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $116 +$1 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 1 above $2.00? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 1 above $7.50? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 1 above $8.00? Jun 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $87 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $121 +$4 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $207 +$2 +1%
Will Chainlink dip to $2 in May? Jun 01 $109 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $117 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in May? May 30 $320 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $319 +$1 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in May? May 20 $335 −$269 -80%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.25 Week of May 11 May 15 $160 +$3 +2%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.50 Week of May 11 May 15 $165 +$3 +2%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $172 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $232 +$2 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 Week of May 4 2026? May 08 $70 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5 May 03 $408 −$86 -21%
Will XRP dip to $1.15 on May 1? May 02 $407 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 01 $816 +$3 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 April 13-19? Apr 20 $811 +$4 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 April 6-12? Apr 13 $809 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 08 $806 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 22 $785 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 4? Mar 05 $785 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 3? Mar 04 $749 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 1? Mar 03 $769 +$1 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $761 +$7 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 28 $791 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 February 9-15? Feb 26 $783 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 9? Feb 10 $749 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 February 2-8? Feb 09 $85 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 February 2-8? Feb 09 $699 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $76 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $0.60 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $109 1h
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $149 1h
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $106 4d
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $100 4d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, BUY No 95¢ $111 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $42 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $60 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $42 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $3 6d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $156 9d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $7.00-$8.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 99¢ $148 9d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 1 above $8.00? BUY No 100¢ $22 12d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 1 above $2.00? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 12d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 1 above $7.50? BUY No 100¢ $50 12d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $101 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 97¢ $121 14d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $87 14d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $116 14d
Will Chainlink dip to $2 in May? BUY No 100¢ $109 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $117 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $35 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $22 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $32 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $28 17d
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 17d
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 99¢ $149 17d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in May? BUY No 99¢ $320 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $329.62 · official $227.78 · 107 history records