Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:51:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e94…3be6 crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$37 (+6%) realized +$35 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%14W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day45.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -9.0% -17.7% 58% 50% -11.9%
≤30d 24 -9.0% -17.7% 58% 50% -11.9%
≤90d 24 -9.0% -17.7% 58% 50% -11.9%
all 24 -9.0% -17.7% 58% 50% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 50% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.6% 38% -20.3%
15% -32.7% 29% -28.0%
20% -39.3% 17% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$15 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses14 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day45.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Down 50¢ 57¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $45 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $71 −$9 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $46 +$18 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $35 +$17 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $8 +$10 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $12 +$8 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $43 −$24 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $68 +$32 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $29 +$9 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $15 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $60 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $15 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $27 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $41 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $30 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $18 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $18 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.25 · official $15.15 · 62 history records