Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:33:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9E 0x9e97…7773 weather 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+1%) realized +$19 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%28W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 +22.0% +10.4% 80% 80% +10.5%
≤90d 42 -4.0% -13.2% 67% 67% -9.3%
all 42 -4.0% -13.2% 67% 67% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 67% -9.3%
10% -21.5% 45% -18.0%
15% -29.1% 26% -25.9%
20% -36.0% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$29 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses28 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage54d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 29? No 76¢ 83¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $51 +$17 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $51 +$28 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $51 +$18 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $50 +$20 +39%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $51 +$15 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $51 +$25 +48%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 08 $51 +$23 +45%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 05 $50 −$4 -9%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun Jun 02 $50 +$22 +43%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May May 29 $51 +$21 +41%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ma May 28 $51 +$15 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 28? May 27 $50 −$50 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 17? May 26 $50 +$8 +17%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ma May 26 $51 +$13 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 23? May 26 $50 +$14 +28%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ma May 26 $51 +$18 +36%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ma May 26 $51 +$18 +36%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ma May 16 $50 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on May 16? May 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 15? May 15 $25 +$4 +15%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma May 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ma May 14 $50 +$10 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 14? May 14 $25 +$5 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 14? May 14 $25 −$5 -19%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ma May 13 $50 +$10 +20%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma May 13 $51 +$11 +22%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ma May 12 $50 +$7 +14%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on May May 12 $51 −$32 -63%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ma May 11 $50 −$11 -23%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma May 10 $50 +$20 +39%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma May 10 $50 +$8 +17%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma May 10 $51 +$23 +46%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma May 09 $50 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 8? May 09 $25 +$11 +45%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ma May 09 $50 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ma May 08 $51 +$17 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on May 7? May 07 $51 +$8 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 8? May 07 $25 −$25 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 7? May 07 $25 −$25 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on May 7? May 07 $25 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 8? May 06 $51 −$8 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 29? BUY No 76¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? BUY No 74¢ $51 14d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? BUY No 64¢ $51 15d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? BUY No 71¢ $50 17d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 73¢ $51 17d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 11? BUY No 76¢ $51 18d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10? BUY No 66¢ $51 19d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 68¢ $51 21d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun BUY No 64¢ $51 21d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju SELL No 89¢ $43 26d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $50 26d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun BUY No 69¢ $50 27d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 28? BUY No 77¢ $50 32d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May BUY No 70¢ $51 32d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ma BUY No 77¢ $51 33d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 23? BUY No 77¢ $50 37d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ma BUY No 73¢ $51 37d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ma BUY No 73¢ $51 37d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 17? BUY No 85¢ $50 43d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ma BUY No 79¢ $51 43d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ma BUY No 87¢ $50 44d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on May 16? BUY No 85¢ $51 44d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma BUY No 86¢ $51 44d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 15? BUY No 86¢ $25 45d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 14? SELL No 66¢ $19 45d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ma BUY No 83¢ $50 46d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 14? BUY No 84¢ $25 46d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 14? BUY No 81¢ $25 46d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma BUY No 81¢ $51 46d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ma BUY No 83¢ $50 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.63 · official $119.83 · 82 history records