Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:36:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e9b…399c crypto 62 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$797 (-19%) realized −$709 · open −$88
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate26%15W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$387now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$257
7 days−$355
14 days−$606
30 days−$925
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$655
world 23% −$340
politics 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -90.5% -91.4% 0% 0% -87.2%
≤30d 58 -19.2% -26.9% 26% 22% -31.5%
≤90d 58 -19.2% -26.9% 26% 22% -31.5%
all 58 -19.2% -26.9% 26% 22% -31.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 22% -31.5%
10% -33.9% 21% -38.0%
15% -40.3% 17% -44.0%
20% -46.1% 16% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$55 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$387
Realized−$709
Unrealized−$88
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses15 / 43
Open positions4
Markets (closed)58 / 62
History coverage15d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 54¢ 50¢ $235 $218 −$17 (-7%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 28¢ 20¢ $220 $162 −$58 (-27%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $77 −$19 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$4 +15%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $79 −$79 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $50 −$16 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 10 $52 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $79 +$174 +221%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $130 +$73 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $80 −$75 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $182 +$221 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $182 +$101 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $159 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $27 −$25 -94%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $50 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 10 $159 −$159 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $79 +$400 +504%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $27 +$327 +1227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $52 +$70 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 08 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 08 $51 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 08 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 08 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $300 −$175 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$24 +91%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by 9% or more? Jun 04 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 04 $21 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 04 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 04 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 04 $103 −$103 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 49¢ $35 15m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 17m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 46¢ $100 17m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $100 28m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 0¢ $10 46m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 69¢ $100 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $100 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $27 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $27 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 0¢ $50 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $34 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $47 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $387.39 · official $377.00 · 203 history records