Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:40:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e9c…6421 politics 3 markets active 48d ago coverage 25d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 24d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (141 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,086 (+103%) realized +$5,086 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,652per market
Trades / day140.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 25d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 88% −$2,272
politics 10% +$308
sports 2% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 -30.2% -36.8% 33% 33% -47.0%
all 3 -30.2% -36.8% 33% 33% -47.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover140.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.8% 33% -47.0%
10% -42.9% 33% -52.1%
15% ← realistic here -48.4% 33% -56.7%
20% -53.5% 33% -61.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
36.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$308 vs −$1,181 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,086
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$1,652
Trades / day140.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 11 $500 +$308 +62%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 04 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 25 $4,366 −$2,272 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes $335 48d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $6 54d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 54d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 54d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 54d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 55d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 55d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 55d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 55d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 55d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 55d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 55d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 55d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2 55d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $5 55d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 55d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2 55d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 55d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 55d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 55d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 55d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2 55d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 55d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 55d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 55d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 55d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 55d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 55d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 55d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records