Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:34:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9ea2…665a weather 230 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$194 (+3%) realized +$205 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%68W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$152
14 days+$128
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$99
other 0% −$4
politics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -16.6% -24.6% 33% 31% +0.1%
≤30d 74 +11.4% +0.8% 35% 32% -5.9%
≤90d 225 +0.3% -9.2% 30% 28% -6.6%
all 225 +0.3% -9.2% 30% 28% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 28% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 24% -15.5%
15% -25.9% 22% -23.7%
20% -33.1% 19% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$14 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized+$205
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses68 / 157
Open positions5
Markets (closed)225 / 230
History coverage55d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Yes 69¢ 99¢ $69 $99 +$30 (+43%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Yes 24¢ 30¢ $34 $41 +$7 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 20? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? Yes 25¢ 1¢ $47 $2 −$45 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 117 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $25 −$3 -13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $396 +$58 +15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$1 -35%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $17 −$3 -18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $13 +$4 +32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $89 −$88 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $41 +$216 +530%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Jun 16 $44 −$10 -23%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $81 +$34 +42%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $75 −$73 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 −$6 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $32 −$29 -89%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $48 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $49 −$48 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $69 +$92 +134%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $70 +$51 +73%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 14 $7 −$5 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$11 +156%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 +$14 +52%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $72 −$35 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $43 −$43 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 −$5 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $48 +$52 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 15? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $133 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $35 +$9 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 −$5 -26%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $34 −$33 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $60 −$15 -25%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $65 +$100 +153%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $73 −$71 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $43 −$42 -97%
Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e Jun 11 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 −$24 -81%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $59 +$99 +168%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $206 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$15 +278%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $46 −$45 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? Jun 10 $26 +$24 +94%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $51 −$49 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $17 +$18 +106%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 3? Jun 06 $41 +$56 +139%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 6? Jun 06 $11 −$11 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 6? Jun 05 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 91¢ $81 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 91¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 28¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 93¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 93¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 93¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 93¢ $54 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 45¢ $46 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 20? BUY Yes 38¢ $18 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.20 · official $160.20 (match) · 1589 history records