Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:45:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9ea5…2f36 sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$500 (-19%) realized −$500 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate43%9W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84
7 days−$84
14 days−$140
30 days−$522
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$522
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-40.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -61.3% -65.0% 25% 12% -29.0%
≤30d 21 -34.4% -40.6% 43% 33% -27.1%
≤90d 21 -34.4% -40.6% 43% 33% -27.1%
all 21 -34.4% -40.6% 43% 33% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.6% 33% -27.1%
10% -46.3% 14% -34.1%
15% -51.5% 10% -40.4%
20% -56.2% 10% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$74 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$500
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses9 / 12
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage25d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $87 +$3 +4%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 21 $65 −$65 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 21 $162 −$18 -11%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Japan (-4.5) Jun 21 $60 +$10 +16%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $59 −$56 -95%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $133 +$2 +2%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $384 −$299 -78%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $35 +$34 +96%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $101 +$64 +63%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $101 +$19 +19%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $108 −$102 -95%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $234 +$30 +13%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $80 −$76 -95%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $141 +$20 +14%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $256 −$256 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $62 −$4 -6%
Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $604 +$186 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $90 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 96¢ $87 1h
Spread: Japan (-4.5) BUY Tunisia 86¢ $3 13h
Spread: Japan (-4.5) BUY Tunisia 86¢ $6 13h
Spread: Japan (-4.5) BUY Tunisia 86¢ $51 13h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Curaçao $3 7d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 59¢ $59 7d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 98¢ $133 16d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Falcons $0 16d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Falcons $1 16d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Falcons $1 16d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Falcons $1 16d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Falcons $1 16d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Falcons $0 16d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL Team Yandex 20¢ $49 23d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Yandex 91¢ $207 23d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Yandex 91¢ $20 23d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL LGD Gaming 12¢ $12 23d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL LGD Gaming 12¢ $21 23d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL LGD Gaming 12¢ $3 23d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY LGD Gaming 28¢ $29 23d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY LGD Gaming 64¢ $128 23d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL Xtreme Gaming $1 23d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Xtreme Gaming $0 23d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL Tundra Esports 100¢ $165 23d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL Aurora 68¢ $8 23d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL Aurora 68¢ $10 23d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL Aurora 68¢ $50 23d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Aurora 34¢ $35 23d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 61¢ $101 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records