Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:40:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9E 0x9ea7…c542 crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$43 (+31%) realized +$31 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$28
crypto 35% −$10
sports 7% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +33.6% +20.9% 50% 50% +30.4%
≤30d 12 +33.6% +20.9% 50% 50% +30.4%
≤90d 12 +33.6% +20.9% 50% 50% +30.4%
all 12 +33.6% +20.9% 50% 50% +30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.9% 50% +30.4%
10% ← realistic here +9.3% 42% +17.9%
15% -1.2% 42% +6.5%
20% -10.9% 42% -3.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +86% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$4 · ×2.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 99¢ $40 $52 +$12 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$17 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$5 +293%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $9 +$33 +365%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $9 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 59m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 4h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 4h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $9 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $9 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.58 · official $51.64 (match) · 25 history records