Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:16:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9ea9…9d42 other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,850 (-84%) realized −$3,848 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%3W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$4,016
crypto 6% +$160
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-49.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -43.6% -49.0% 10% 10% -88.0%
≤30d 29 -43.6% -49.0% 10% 10% -88.0%
≤90d 29 -43.6% -49.0% 10% 10% -88.0%
all 29 -43.6% -49.0% 10% 10% -88.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.0% 10% -88.0%
10% -53.9% 10% -89.2%
15% -58.3% 10% -90.2%
20% -62.4% 10% -91.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -87% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -87% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -88% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$160 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$3,848
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses3 / 26
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage6d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium leading at halftime? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $112 −$110 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $253 +$185 +73%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$15 +146%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$115 +1116%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,022 −$2,000 -99%
Spain to win the second half? Jun 15 $181 −$180 -99%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1,510 −$1,500 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $41 1h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 13h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 23h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $152 27h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 27h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 27h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 27h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 41¢ $25 4d
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.18 · official $88.18 (match) · 38 history records