Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:30:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9eae…98a5 other 340 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (130 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12,074 (-19%) realized −$12,918 · open +$844
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate19%130W / 545L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day130.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$10,771now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$3,662
finance 18% +$1,247
weather 7% −$135
politics 4% −$225
tech 3% +$241
world 1% −$38
sports 1% −$24
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (130 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-39.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 472 -76.5% -78.8% 7% 6% -46.4%
≤30d 675 -33.0% -39.4% 19% 12% -10.6%
≤90d 675 -33.0% -39.4% 19% 12% -10.6%
all 675 -33.0% -39.4% 19% 12% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover130.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.4% 12% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -45.2% 9% -19.2%
15% -50.5% 6% -27.0%
20% -55.3% 4% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late -85% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$12 · ×4.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$10,771
Realized−$12,918
Unrealized+$844
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses130 / 545
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions69
Markets (closed)675 / 340
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$191
Trades / day130.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 69 History 675 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $2.5B? Yes 67¢ 86¢ $1,243 $1,596 +$354 (+28%)
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $26B? Yes 62¢ 93¢ $846 $1,274 +$428 (+51%)
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.1B? Yes 94¢ 74¢ $1,233 $976 −$257 (-21%)
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 54¢ 90¢ $502 $838 +$336 (+67%)
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.35B? Yes 90¢ 75¢ $650 $540 −$109 (-17%)
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be below 75%? No 54¢ 96¢ $301 $530 +$228 (+76%)
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be between 80% and 82.5%? No 60¢ 74¢ $323 $398 +$75 (+23%)
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $7.0B? Yes 84¢ 94¢ $333 $370 +$37 (+11%)
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $27.5B? Yes 78¢ 84¢ $333 $354 +$22 (+6%)
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $7.5B? Yes 79¢ 81¢ $313 $325 +$12 (+4%)
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 74¢ 56¢ $421 $320 −$101 (-24%)
Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $2.3B? Yes 56¢ 92¢ $193 $319 +$126 (+65%)
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 50¢ 92¢ $162 $297 +$134 (+83%)
Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.3B? Yes 69¢ 76¢ $244 $268 +$24 (+10%)
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.7B? Yes 94¢ 90¢ $276 $266 −$11 (-4%)
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%? No 70¢ 61¢ $282 $247 −$35 (-13%)
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.0B? Yes 94¢ 90¢ $188 $180 −$7 (-4%)
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.55B? Yes 97¢ 54¢ $256 $143 −$113 (-44%)
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $1.9B? Yes 93¢ 91¢ $135 $132 −$3 (-2%)
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B? Yes 62¢ 78¢ $74 $94 +$19 (+26%)
Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.2B? Yes 50¢ 90¢ $50 $90 +$40 (+80%)
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $25B? Yes 70¢ 97¢ $64 $89 +$25 (+39%)
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 25¢ 48¢ $44 $84 +$40 (+90%)
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1.5% and 2%? Yes 15¢ 8¢ $137 $76 −$61 (-44%)
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.35B? No 81¢ 76¢ $81 $76 −$5 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 430 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-24? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will HawkEye 360's market cap be less than $2.5B at market close on IP Jun 18 $16 −$17 -104%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Take-Two Q4 net bookings be above $1.65B? Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 Week of April 13 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
FC Groningen vs. NAC Breda: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Girona FC vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will White House post 40-59 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Odense BK vs. Vejle BK: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 218.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Urban Outfitters (URBN) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
PEC Zwolle vs. Heracles Almelo: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
NEC vs. Telstar 1963: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $80 Week of May 4 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Hibernian FC vs. Motherwell FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Real Sporting de Gijón vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $195 Week of May 11 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
FK Orenburg vs. PFK Krylia Sovetov Samara: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 Week of April 27 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $212.50 Week of April 27 Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: Both Teams to Scor Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $284 Week of April 20 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.75 Week of April Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $330 Week of April 27 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Empoli FC vs. US Avellino 1912: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-03? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Suns vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Oxford United FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: Patriots (-13.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Nets vs. 76ers Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hannover 96: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $126 Week of May 18 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Hertha BSC win on 2025-12-07? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Rockets vs. Bulls Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Hertha BSC vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $78 Week of April 13 2026? Jun 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Fulham FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Knicks vs. Hornets: O/U 222.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
BSC Young Boys vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will TKO Group Holdings (TKO) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Viborg FF win on 2025-11-02? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-02-21? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.1B? BUY Yes 92¢ $276 7m
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.1B? BUY Yes 93¢ $186 7m
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.1B? BUY Yes 94¢ $188 7m
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.1B? BUY Yes 94¢ $189 7m
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.1B? BUY Yes 95¢ $285 8m
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.1B? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 8m
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.35B? BUY Yes 90¢ $243 33m
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.35B? BUY Yes 90¢ $179 33m
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be above 2%? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Will Karianne Lisonbee be the Republican nominee for UT-02? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02? SELL No 1¢ $13 1h
Will Safepoint not IPO before August 2026? SELL No 7¢ $119 1h
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $46 1h
Will Sarah Elfreth be the Democratic nominee for MD-03? SELL No 3¢ $35 1h
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? SELL No 7¢ $6 1h
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? SELL No 92¢ $230 1h
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY No 7¢ $5 2h
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY No 7¢ $1 3h
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%? BUY No 58¢ $11 4h
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1% and 1 BUY No 56¢ $10 4h
Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02? BUY No 3¢ $28 4h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $55 5h
Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02? BUY No 6¢ $19 5h
Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02? BUY No 6¢ $32 5h
Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02? BUY No 7¢ $7 5h
Will Karianne Lisonbee be the Republican nominee for UT-02? BUY Yes 7¢ $33 5h
Will Safepoint not IPO before August 2026? BUY No 9¢ $26 5h
Will Safepoint not IPO before August 2026? BUY No 9¢ $18 5h
Will Safepoint not IPO before August 2026? BUY No 9¢ $18 5h
Will Safepoint not IPO before August 2026? BUY No 9¢ $27 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,770.81 · official $10,770.86 (match) · 3500 history records