Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:10:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9E 0x9eaf…3f34 crypto 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$28 (+12%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +50% what you keep after slip
Net edge+50%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate72%13W / 5L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$11
sports 6% +$36
other 2% +$8
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+55.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +72.2% +55.8% 72% 50% +4.4%
≤30d 18 +72.2% +55.8% 72% 50% +4.4%
≤90d 18 +72.2% +55.8% 72% 50% +4.4%
all 18 +72.2% +55.8% 72% 50% +4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +55.8% 50% +4.4%
10% +40.9% 44% -5.6%
15% +27.2% 33% -14.7%
20% +14.8% 28% -23.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +72% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +142% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses13 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage5d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$1 +3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$24 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$39 +1269%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 9¢ $7 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AN BUY 25¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 4d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records