Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:45:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9eb0…8488 world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 440d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate43%16W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$8
other 19% −$11
finance 9% $0
politics 5% +$2
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.6% -9.0% 29% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 17 +1.1% -8.5% 24% 6% -8.8%
≤90d 17 +1.1% -8.5% 24% 6% -8.8%
all 37 -3.1% -12.3% 43% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 5% -9.5%
10% -20.7% 3% -18.2%
15% -28.4% 3% -26.1%
20% -35.4% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

440d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage440d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $108 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $55 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $48 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $54 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $50 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $52 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $49 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $88 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $47 +$7 +15%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $62 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $48 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $22 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 11 $7 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump by Monday? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 07 $8 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Apr 12 $18 $0 +1%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 11 $18 $0 -0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 10 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 07 $17 $0 -1%
2025 March hottest on record? Apr 06 $26 $0 +1%
Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 05 $4 +$2 +56%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? Apr 05 $19 $0 +1%
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Apr 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Apr 03 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $8 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $9 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $38 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $55 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $55 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $55 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 55¢ $27 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 52¢ $25 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $49 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $53 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $27 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $54 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $54 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $3 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $2 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $28 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $28 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $18 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $17 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $45 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $4 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $39 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $9 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $54 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records