Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:55:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9eb1…944c other 165 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-2%) realized −$50 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%46W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days−$41
14 days−$48
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$108
sports 43% −$151
economics 3% −$46
crypto 2% −$4
tech 0% −$5
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +6.9% -3.3% 33% 33% -15.8%
≤30d 79 +10.4% -0.1% 34% 34% -17.5%
≤90d 162 -1.4% -10.8% 28% 28% -13.5%
all 162 -1.4% -10.8% 28% 28% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 28% -13.5%
10% -19.3% 28% -21.8%
15% -27.1% 28% -29.3%
20% -34.3% 27% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$11 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$50
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses46 / 116
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions3
Markets (closed)162 / 165
History coverage65d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $19 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+11%)
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 99 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $4 +$11 +295%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -96%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$24 +244%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $20 −$19 -97%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $20 +$13 +67%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$19 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -97%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 +$14 +140%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $20 +$24 +121%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $11 +$47 +431%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$6 +62%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $15 −$7 -50%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $27 +$24 +89%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 −$1 -6%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: France (-5.5) Jun 22 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -96%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $17 −$16 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$20 +203%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 +$43 +864%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $13 −$13 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 +$25 +246%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 +$29 +287%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$12 +60%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6 +$2 +28%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $90 −$88 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $40 +$15 +39%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$19 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $20 −$4 -19%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$27 +137%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 17 $50 −$48 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $15 1h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 90¢ $34 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $4 3h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 6h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $33 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 9h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $20 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 31h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Ghana 95¢ $24 31h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 34¢ $10 34h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 38¢ $10 34h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 36h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $12 36h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 47h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 53¢ $16 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 15¢ $8 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 2d
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 34¢ $15 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $15 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $27 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 21¢ $9 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 2d
Spread: France (-5.5) SELL France 11¢ $14 2d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $17 2d
Spread: France (-5.5) BUY France 11¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.63 · official $30.63 (match) · 268 history records