Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:22:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

9E 0x9eb2…abdf other 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$2,718 (+16%) realized +$3,046 · open −$328

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR54%break-even

Win rate57%16W / 12L

Whale WR86%big bets

Drawdown55%max

Avg bet$558per market

Trades / day12.1pace

Fees−$176est.

Kalshi-fit48%portable

Net worth$872now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +54%

net ROI/market (all)-1.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	28	+8.5%	-1.8%	57%	54%	+2.7%
≤30d	28	+8.5%	-1.8%	57%	54%	+2.7%
≤90d	28	+8.5%	-1.8%	57%	54%	+2.7%
all	28	+8.5%	-1.8%	57%	54%	+2.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.1 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-1.8%	54%	+2.7%
10% ← realistic here	-11.2%	50%	-7.1%
15%	-19.8%	46%	-16.1%
20%	-27.6%	32%	-24.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

6% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +9% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 86% (≥$910) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +2% → late +15% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$347 vs −$282 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$872

Realized+$3,046

Unrealized−$328

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses16 / 12

Whale WR (big bets)86%

Est. fees paid−$176

Open positions3

Markets (closed)28 / 31

History coverage6d

Avg bet$558

Trades / day12.1

Drawdown55%

Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 28 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	Over	46¢	40¢	$1,000	$872	−$128 (-13%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$100	$0	−$100 (-100%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo?	Yes	17¢	0¢	$100	$0	−$100 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$1,319	−$343	-26%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$305	−$85	-28%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$1,009	+$381	+38%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$203	−$11	-6%
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	Jun 17	$508	−$313	-62%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?	Jun 17	$103	−$100	-97%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$506	+$347	+68%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$1,011	+$595	+59%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$1,516	+$732	+48%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 16	$557	+$247	+44%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5	Jun 16	$1,179	+$359	+30%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$790	+$361	+46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$265	+$523	+197%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$507	−$500	-98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$154	−$150	-98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$910	+$17	+2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$838	−$828	-99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$305	+$229	+75%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5	Jun 15	$911	+$599	+66%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$304	+$278	+91%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$306	−$54	-18%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5	Jun 14	$275	+$333	+121%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$306	−$218	-71%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$658	−$650	-99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$445	+$246	+55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$133	−$130	-98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$503	+$76	+15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$254	+$235	+92%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	39¢	$204	2m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	48¢	$812	17m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	19¢	$202	24m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	17¢	$102	1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	14¢	$103	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	46¢	$508	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	54¢	$775	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	55¢	$811	1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	36¢	$219	12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	48¢	$305	12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	99¢	$1,389	12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	62¢	$202	12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	42¢	$192	12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	43¢	$203	12h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Austria	18¢	$182	13h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Austria	18¢	$13	13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	74¢	$806	13h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?	BUY Yes	12¢	$103	13h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	99¢	$853	13h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	58¢	$506	14h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Austria	45¢	$508	15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	99¢	$1,607	15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	58¢	$304	15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	59¢	$101	15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	64¢	$606	15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	97¢	$2,248	15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$505	18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	65¢	$1,010	18h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	SELL Norway	88¢	$804	18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	99¢	$939	18h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $872.45 · official $872.45 (match) · 69 history records