Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:23:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9E 0x9eb4…65a1 crypto 1238 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (451 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$33,881 (+5%) realized +$34,321 · open −$440
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%105W / 1125L
Whale WR13%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$551per market
Trades / day451.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4,178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (451 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1230 +0.6% -9.0% 9% 4% -8.9%
≤30d 1230 +0.6% -9.0% 9% 4% -8.9%
≤90d 1230 +0.6% -9.0% 9% 4% -8.9%
all 1230 +0.6% -9.0% 9% 4% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover451.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 4% -8.9%
10% -17.7% 1% -17.6%
15% ← realistic here -25.7% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 13% (≥$600) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
0.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$54 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.33 per $1 lost it wins $2.33
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$4,300
Realized+$34,321
Unrealized−$440
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses105 / 1125
Whale WR (big bets)13%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1230 / 1238
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$551
Trades / day451.4
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Down 50¢ 84¢ $250 $422 +$172 (+69%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 50¢ 80¢ $250 $402 +$152 (+61%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 50¢ 66¢ $300 $399 +$99 (+33%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $300 $303 +$3 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $300 $303 +$3 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Down 50¢ 52¢ $250 $258 +$8 (+3%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $250 $252 +$2 (+1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $250 $250 +$0 (+0%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $250 $250 +$0 (+0%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Up 50¢ 48¢ $250 $242 −$8 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 50¢ 34¢ $300 $201 −$99 (-33%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 50¢ 20¢ $250 $98 −$152 (-61%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Up 50¢ 16¢ $250 $78 −$172 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 27 $500 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 27 $600 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $500 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $500 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 27 $500 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 27 $600 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 27 $500 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 27 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $500 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $500 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 26 $500 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 26 $600 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 26 $500 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 26 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $500 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $500 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 26 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 26 $600 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 26 $500 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 26 $500 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 26 $500 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 26 $500 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 26 $600 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 26 $500 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 26 $600 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 26 $500 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 26 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $500 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $500 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 26 $500 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 26 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $600 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $500 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $500 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $500 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $600 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $500 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $600 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $500 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $500 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $500 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $600 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 26 $500 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 26 $600 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 26 $500 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $37 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $22 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,300.00 · official $4,300.00 (match) · 3500 history records