Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:03:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9E
0x9eb5…3253
weather · 306 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$36 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$58 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$96
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses171 / 124
Open positions11
Markets (closed)295 / 306
History coverage63d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 11 History 295 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$36
14 days−$38
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? No 75¢ 100¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? No 83¢ 84¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? No 87¢ 86¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? No 86¢ 70¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? No 80¢ 56¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? Yes 43¢ 39¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? Yes 8¢ 13¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+57%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 15? Yes 37¢ 35¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 13? No 75¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on April 19? No 80¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 11? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 16? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 12? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on May 26? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 13? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? No 78¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 4? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 4? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on May 26? No 70¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 4? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 7? No 83¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $7 +$7 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 14 $7 +$7 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 −$15 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 13 $15 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$14 +602%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$4 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $15 +$3 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $15 +$4 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $15 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 11? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 10 $15 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $9 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 09 $15 +$3 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 8? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9? Jun 08 $15 −$5 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $15 +$2 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $15 +$4 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 4? Jun 05 $7 +$9 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on June 4? Jun 04 $15 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 4? Jun 04 $7 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 3? Jun 04 $3 +$4 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 4? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 4? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 4? Jun 03 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 2? Jun 03 $7 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 2? Jun 03 $1 +$8 +857%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 2? Jun 03 $7 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 4? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 4? Jun 02 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 4? Jun 02 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 2? Jun 02 $7 +$2 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 47m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 47m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 47m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 83¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $15 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 80¢ $15 17h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 31h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 49¢ $7 31h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $7 45h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 86¢ $15 46h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 49¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 75¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 86¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? BUY Yes 49¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 86¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 78¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -3.4% -12.6% 55% 55% -21.7%
≤30d 154 +4.0% -5.9% 58% 57% -11.4%
≤90d 295 -1.0% -10.4% 58% 54% -12.4%
all 295 -1.0% -10.4% 58% 54% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 54% -12.4%
10% -19.0% 25% -20.8%
15% -26.8% 16% -28.4%
20% -34.0% 12% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.50 · official $95.60 (match) · 619 history records