Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:50:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9eb5…73b8 sports 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$211 (-1%) realized −$218 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate75%77W / 25L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$355per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$396est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$451
7 days−$272
14 days+$8
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$522
other 3% +$103
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -12.7% -21.1% 64% 14% -12.6%
≤30d 79 -6.4% -15.3% 76% 24% -10.1%
≤90d 102 -6.7% -15.6% 75% 25% -10.6%
all 102 -6.7% -15.6% 75% 25% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 25% -10.6%
10% -23.7% 9% -19.2%
15% -31.1% 3% -27.0%
20% -37.8% 2% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$514) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$104 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$218
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses77 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$396
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage47d
Avg bet$355
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Bangladesh 41¢ 36¢ $61 $53 −$8 (-13%)
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Australia 50¢ 64¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $1,562 −$466 -30%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 18 $48 +$2 +4%
Will England win? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China Jun 18 $456 +$19 +4%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil Jun 18 $616 −$19 -3%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 17 $453 +$23 +5%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 17 $598 +$12 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $102 +$3 +3%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $590 −$4 -1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $247 +$61 +25%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 15 $412 +$38 +9%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $552 +$5 +1%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $664 +$35 +5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $581 +$37 +6%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $1,304 +$102 +8%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $689 +$45 +6%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $49 −$43 -88%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $49 −$48 -97%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Glamorgan Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Jun 12 $2 $0 +11%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs United Arab Emirates Jun 12 $561 +$1 +0%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $1,768 +$64 +4%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 09 $10 +$1 +7%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire Jun 09 $85 +$17 +20%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire Jun 09 $5 $0 +8%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $203 +$29 +14%
Will India win? Jun 08 $218 +$18 +8%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 08 $402 +$31 +8%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Warwickshire Jun 07 $228 +$66 +29%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Yorkshire Jun 07 $94 +$6 +6%
T20 Blast: Gloucestershire vs Worcestershire Jun 07 $126 +$2 +2%
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match go Jun 07 $213 +$2 +1%
Will England win? Jun 07 $523 +$66 +13%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 07 $102 +$18 +17%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire Jun 06 $8 −$8 -99%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Leicestershire Jun 05 $387 +$19 +5%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Hampshire Jun 05 $559 −$55 -10%
Will Afghanistan win? Jun 05 $51 −$1 -2%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Glamorgan Jun 05 $214 +$5 +2%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Glamorgan Jun 04 $125 +$4 +3%
Birmingham (Doubles): Harris/Virtanen vs Bu/Zhang Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 03 $892 +$22 +2%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Sussex Jun 03 $127 −$127 -100%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Bhutan vs Hong Kong, China Jun 03 $24 −$24 -100%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh Jun 03 $233 +$6 +3%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $514 +$50 +10%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $116 −$116 -100%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Malaysia vs China Jun 02 $11 −$8 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 36¢ $37 2h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 35¢ $0 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 41¢ $209 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 41¢ $219 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 7¢ $7 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 85¢ $505 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 91¢ $182 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 91¢ $183 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 91¢ $177 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 70¢ $30 12h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 70¢ $5 12h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 65¢ $552 12h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 64¢ $550 14h
Will New Zealand win? SELL Yes 50¢ $39 15h
Will England win? SELL Yes 50¢ $47 17h
Will England win? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 17h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China SELL Hong Kong, China 98¢ $475 17h
Will New Zealand win? SELL Yes 50¢ $10 18h
Will New Zealand win? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 18h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China BUY Hong Kong, China 94¢ $456 18h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil SELL Brazil 100¢ $457 20h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Brazil 100¢ $446 20h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Brazil 100¢ $10 20h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil SELL Rwanda 87¢ $139 21h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil SELL Brazil 4¢ $0 21h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda 98¢ $147 21h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda 98¢ $10 21h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Brazil 24¢ $1 23h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Brazil 24¢ $1 23h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan SELL South Africa 100¢ $15 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.66 · official $85.66 (match) · 818 history records