Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:20:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9eb8…af0a politics 28 markets active 2d ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%3W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$969per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 93% −$111
other 7% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 27% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 28 -0.7% -10.2% 11% 0% -9.9%
all 28 -0.7% -10.2% 11% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$991) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses3 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage72d
Avg bet$969
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 25? Jun 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $877 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,871 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,871 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,774 −$3 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $1,878 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $889 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $885 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $891 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $1,796 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $895 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $894 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $897 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $894 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $900 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $898 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $900 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $434 −$78 -18%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $982 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $989 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $990 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $991 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $992 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $46 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $42 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 4d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $875 9d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $877 10d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $876 11d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $878 13d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $879 14d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $880 15d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $878 16d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $880 18d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $879 19d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $880 20d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $879 24d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $881 25d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $882 26d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $883 27d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $887 28d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $888 29d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $888 31d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $889 32d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $884 33d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $885 34d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $890 35d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $891 36d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $890 37d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $891 38d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $891 39d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $893 40d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $893 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records