Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:04:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9E 0x9ebf…ff4a sports 186 markets active 0h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,935 (-13%) realized −$8,933 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate64%118W / 65L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$369per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$186est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$77
7 days−$8,606
14 days−$7,605
30 days−$7,605
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$5,801
crypto 38% −$2,901
other 3% −$228
weather 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -45.7% -50.9% 35% 31% -63.6%
≤30d 92 -30.0% -36.7% 47% 39% -39.2%
≤90d 100 -26.2% -33.3% 50% 41% -38.4%
all 183 -9.6% -18.2% 64% 50% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 50% -21.2%
10% -26.0% 28% -28.8%
15% -33.1% 17% -35.7%
20% -39.7% 11% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$282 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$8,933
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses118 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$186
Open positions1
Markets (closed)183 / 186
History coverage242d
Avg bet$369
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 11¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $19 +$8 +41%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $16 +$3 +20%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 −$38 -75%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $305 −$300 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $101 −$96 -95%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 −$78 -76%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $103 +$64 +62%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $404 +$99 +24%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $360 +$82 +23%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $302 +$58 +19%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $425 +$90 +21%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $251 +$174 +70%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $135 +$116 +86%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $116 +$20 +17%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $145 −$30 -21%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $128 +$17 +14%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $101 +$19 +19%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $51 +$37 +74%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $40 −$40 -99%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $201 −$8 -4%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $148 +$53 +36%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $102 +$46 +46%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $93 +$9 +9%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U Jun 19 $38 +$56 +148%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $30 +$8 +27%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $79 −$79 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 AND Spread Jun 18 $60 +$19 +32%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-2.5) AND Spread: Englan Jun 17 $117 +$1 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Fra Jun 17 $25 +$34 +136%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $8 +$9 +109%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $509 −$497 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 8? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs KT Rolster (BO1) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs OKSavingsBank BRION (BO1) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: DRX vs DN Freecs (BO1) Jun 14 $70 −$68 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 7? Jun 14 $138 +$13 +9%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO1) Jun 14 $144 +$42 +29%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 14 $43 −$43 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO1) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: DN Freecs vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 11¢ $5 1m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $27 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $19 5h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 83¢ $16 7h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 14¢ $13 7h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $51 8h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 39¢ $305 13h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $116 14h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes $4 14h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $24 14h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $101 14h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 86¢ $100 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 14h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 20¢ $167 14h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 12¢ $103 15h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 83¢ $0 15h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 83¢ $503 15h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 66¢ $404 15h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 81¢ $101 17h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 81¢ $259 17h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 96¢ $360 17h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 80¢ $101 18h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 77¢ $101 18h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 77¢ $101 18h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 80¢ $101 18h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 80¢ $101 18h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $516 18h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $425 18h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $251 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.95 · official $2.95 (match) · 545 history records