Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:26:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9ec2…a53c sports 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized −$161 · open +$162
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate29%5W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$673now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$183
other 8% −$19
world 1% −$9
crypto 1% −$5
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-43.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -37.0% -43.0% 29% 24% -13.1%
≤30d 17 -37.0% -43.0% 29% 24% -13.1%
≤90d 17 -37.0% -43.0% 29% 24% -13.1%
all 17 -37.0% -43.0% 29% 24% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.0% 24% -13.1%
10% -48.5% 24% -21.4%
15% -53.4% 24% -29.0%
20% -58.0% 18% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$9 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$673
Realized−$161
Unrealized+$162
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses5 / 12
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions11
Markets (closed)17 / 28
History coverage14d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 66¢ $459 $632 +$173 (+38%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 78¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+38%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 15¢ 14¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-12%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 37¢ 20¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-44%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No $6 $2 −$4 (-75%)
Will Trump say “Thank You” 5+ times during UFC 250? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$5 -10%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 +$2 +65%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $15 −$4 -24%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $70 +$32 +45%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$29 +143%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 −$10 -34%
Will Trump say "America" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump say "UFC" 3+ times during UFC 250? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $43 +$35 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $304 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $4 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No $2 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No $2 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $2 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $2 8h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $61 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 26¢ $13 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 28¢ $33 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $51 17h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 30¢ $12 20h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 87¢ $102 20h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $70 23h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 99¢ $49 23h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 74¢ $21 23h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 35¢ $20 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3 26h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $5 2d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $10 2d
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Trump say "America" during UFC 250? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Trump say "UFC" 3+ times during UFC 250? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Trump say “Thank You” 5+ times during UFC 250? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $672.78 · official $672.78 (match) · 60 history records