Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9E 0x9ec3…84e4 crypto 17 markets active 9d ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate93%13W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$866per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 99% −$30
crypto 1% +$4
other 0% +$1
finance 0% +$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +5.4% -4.6% 100% 25% -4.9%
≤90d 13 +5.8% -4.3% 100% 23% -4.5%
all 14 +5.3% -4.7% 93% 21% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 21% -9.7%
10% -13.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -22.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -29.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$30 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses13 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage127d
Avg bet$866
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 96¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? No 97¢ 96¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $7 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 09 $7 $0 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 09 $7 +$1 +14%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 09 $11 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 18 $6 +$1 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? May 18 $7 +$1 +12%
USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 18 $8 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April? May 18 $9 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? Apr 18 $13 +$1 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 18 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of March? Mar 29 $8 $0 +3%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 29 $6 $0 +3%
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? Mar 29 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 06 $14,581 −$30 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $8 9d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? BUY No 96¢ $8 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY No 97¢ $8 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $7 9d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 96¢ $7 35d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $7 35d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? BUY No 87¢ $7 35d
Will Solana reach $110 in May? BUY No 97¢ $11 35d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April? BUY No 97¢ $9 65d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 89¢ $6 65d
USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 96¢ $8 65d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? BUY No 89¢ $7 65d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? BUY No 93¢ $15 85d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? BUY No 92¢ $13 85d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $8 85d
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $14 101d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of March? BUY No 97¢ $8 101d
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $6 101d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 98¢ $850 136d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $211 136d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $141 136d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $13,332 136d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $17 136d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $14,581 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.51 · official $24.51 (match) · 35 history records