Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:38:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9E 0x9ec5…6093 sports 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$468 (+18%) realized +$468 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%37W / 31L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days+$367
14 days+$564
30 days+$564
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$510
other 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +19.5% +8.1% 69% 69% +21.3%
≤30d 27 +16.7% +5.6% 63% 63% +15.8%
≤90d 58 +10.9% +0.3% 59% 59% +10.1%
all 68 +2.0% -7.7% 54% 54% +7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 54% +7.9%
10% -16.5% 54% -2.4%
15% -24.6% 50% -11.8%
20% -32.0% 43% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$31 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$468
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses37 / 31
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage103d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $94 +$58 +62%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $101 +$95 +93%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $63 −$62 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $101 +$83 +82%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 +$107 +105%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $60 +$16 +26%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $39 −$38 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $64 −$63 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $56 +$38 +67%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $47 +$29 +63%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$63 +62%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $152 +$142 +93%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $101 +$84 +83%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 +$159 +156%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $100 +$151 +152%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $40 −$39 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $45 −$44 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$84 +165%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $63 −$62 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $19 +$24 +122%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $32 −$31 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $101 +$33 +32%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $35 +$13 +38%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 108.5 Jun 11 $51 +$25 +50%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1? May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 13 $6 +$4 +63%
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 13 $4 +$2 +46%
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 13 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5 May 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 1? Apr 15 $20 +$8 +38%
Sevilla FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Apr 11 $31 −$30 -99%
Atalanta BC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 11 $26 −$26 -98%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 116.5 Apr 01 $19 −$18 -98%
Sweden vs. Poland: O/U 4.5 Mar 31 $28 +$41 +145%
Sweden vs. Poland: O/U 2.5 Mar 31 $29 +$20 +71%
Liberia vs. Libya: O/U 2.5 Mar 31 $20 +$11 +57%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winner Mar 31 $6 +$11 +165%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs SK Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 30 $8 +$14 +180%
Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5 Mar 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Colombia vs. France: O/U 2.5 Mar 29 $20 +$5 +24%
Armenia vs. Belarus: O/U 2.5 Mar 29 $20 +$11 +56%
Lithuania vs. Georgia: O/U 2.5 Mar 29 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 29 $16 +$10 +61%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qu Mar 29 $11 +$15 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $94 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 27h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $63 35h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $60 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $39 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $101 5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $64 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $56 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 60¢ $47 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $101 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $152 7d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 7d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 59¢ $101 8d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $260 8d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $102 8d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 8d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $100 9d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $40 9d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $45 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $51 10d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $19 10d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $43 10d
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $19 11d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 39¢ $32 11d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $101 12d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $35 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 108.5 BUY Over 66¢ $51 13d
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1? BUY Over 50¢ $10 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records