Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:24:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9ec6…eda9 sports 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4,364 (+5%) realized +$4,402 · open −$38
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate26%6W / 17L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,587per market
Trades / day48.9pace
Fees−$1,998est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$11,362now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$4,363
other 13% −$4,533
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -15.5% -23.5% 26% 17% -9.5%
≤30d 23 -15.5% -23.5% 26% 17% -9.5%
≤90d 23 -15.5% -23.5% 26% 17% -9.5%
all 23 -15.5% -23.5% 26% 17% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.5% 17% -9.5%
10% -30.8% 17% -18.1%
15% ← realistic here -37.5% 17% -26.1%
20% -43.6% 17% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$4,865) neutral
Persistence
early -28% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,850 vs −$1,367 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$11,362
Realized+$4,402
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses6 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1,998
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage4d
Avg bet$3,587
Trades / day48.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 37¢ 38¢ $6,900 $6,943 +$43 (+1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Over 28¢ 28¢ $4,500 $4,420 −$80 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $3,074 −$425 -14%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $514 +$3 +1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1,026 −$137 -13%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $8,120 −$2,984 -37%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4,865 −$1,585 -33%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3,554 −$1,025 -29%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1,021 −$43 -4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $513 +$34 +7%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $11,098 +$6,728 +61%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $6,814 −$4,193 -62%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3,180 −$1,475 -46%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5,453 +$11,591 +213%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $9,385 −$5,127 -55%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,983 −$297 -15%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,027 −$1,000 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3,075 −$3,000 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,449 −$1,424 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $6,203 +$3,196 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,727 +$1,547 +90%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $507 −$299 -59%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,224 −$86 -7%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,222 −$63 -5%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1,015 −$69 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $1,935 24m
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Belgium 16¢ $1,798 28m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $4,597 30m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $517 57m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 12¢ $889 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $1,026 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 17¢ $1,025 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 19¢ $2,728 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $457 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $510 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1,020 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $204 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $46 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $67 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $34 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $49 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $16 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $969 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $67 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $160 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $192 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1,749 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 59¢ $2,407 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $69 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $6 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $2 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $310 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $2 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,362.21 · official $11,362.21 (match) · 192 history records