Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9ec7…1ee2 other 32 markets active 2d ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$483 (-59%) realized −$483 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%8W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$459
14 days−$459
30 days−$459
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$455
crypto 5% −$41
world 4% +$7
tech 3% +$5
sports 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -26.5% -33.5% 21% 21% -69.8%
≤30d 28 -26.5% -33.5% 21% 21% -69.8%
≤90d 32 -25.1% -32.2% 25% 25% -64.2%
all 32 -25.1% -32.2% 25% 25% -64.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.2% 25% -64.2%
10% -38.7% 22% -67.7%
15% -44.6% 19% -70.8%
20% -50.0% 12% -73.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$24 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$483
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses8 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage71d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +42%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $6 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 +$19 +873%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$7 -64%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 +$3 +42%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $7 +$4 +61%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $22 −$8 -36%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -27%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $11 +$9 +80%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $77 −$77 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $55 +$49 +89%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $8 −$3 -41%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $67 −$40 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $202 −$197 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $82 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 08 $40 −$40 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 08 $34 +$7 +19%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 7? Apr 07 $22 +$5 +24%
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $22 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 41h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 41h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 41h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 41h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 41h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 44h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 44h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 44h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 44h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 44h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 4d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 91¢ $11 4d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 4d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $7 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 39¢ $14 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $22 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? SELL Yes 32¢ $20 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 5d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $77 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $99 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records