Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:49:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9ec9…5f0d other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$429 (-14%) realized −$429 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate20%11W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$645
world 20% −$34
sports 17% +$142
finance 7% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-38.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.1% -12.3% 0% 0% -12.3%
≤30d 1 -3.1% -12.3% 0% 0% -12.3%
≤90d 56 -31.9% -38.4% 20% 18% -24.8%
all 56 -31.9% -38.4% 20% 18% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.4% 18% -24.8%
10% -44.3% 16% -32.0%
15% -49.7% 14% -38.6%
20% -54.6% 12% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$22 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$429
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses11 / 45
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage54d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $40 −$1 -3%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $10 −$10 -99%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 11 $471 −$87 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $12 −$8 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $28 −$12 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $19 −$9 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $7 −$1 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $28 −$5 -17%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 211.5 May 10 $49 +$49 +101%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5 May 09 $46 +$34 +73%
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 09 $79 +$18 +23%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? May 09 $20 −$9 -48%
76ers vs. Knicks May 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 09 $9 −$6 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 08 $3 −$1 -44%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 08 $60 −$6 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $17 −$2 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $40 −$10 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $32 −$14 -46%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 07 $81 −$5 -6%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $99 −$32 -32%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 06 $54 +$113 +209%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $150 −$83 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $2 $0 -7%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-30? May 06 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Will White House post 200+ posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 06 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026? May 06 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 06 $23 −$6 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $100 +$70 +70%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 04 $40 −$9 -22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 03 $40 −$7 -18%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $30 +$11 +37%
Will White House post 200+ posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $192 −$161 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $5 −$5 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $2 $0 -10%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $10 +$1 +10%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $11 +$9 +80%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $19 −$7 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 01 $10 −$4 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 71¢ $30 1h
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 71¢ $9 5h
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 72¢ $40 10h
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13? BUY No 72¢ $20 40d
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13? BUY No 72¢ $10 40d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY No 67¢ $10 40d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $54 42d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 43d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 43d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 43d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 43d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $23 43d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 43d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 43d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 43d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 43d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $28 43d
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 211.5 BUY Over 49¢ $49 44d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5 SELL Over 100¢ $80 44d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5 BUY Over 57¢ $46 44d
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $46 44d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 44d
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? SELL No 36¢ $10 44d
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? BUY No 67¢ $20 44d
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 44d
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 44d
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 44d
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $28 44d
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $22 45d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 168 history records