Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:37:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9E 0x9ec9…36f9 crypto 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$364 (-34%) realized −$362 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 110d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$359
other 29% +$50
sports 22% +$7
tech 6% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +17.4% +6.2% 100% 50% +9.2%
≤30d 3 -21.7% -29.2% 67% 33% -11.3%
≤90d 3 -21.7% -29.2% 67% 33% -11.3%
all 7 -27.3% -34.2% 43% 29% -50.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.2% 29% -50.8%
10% -40.5% 29% -55.5%
15% -46.3% 14% -59.8%
20% -51.5% 14% -63.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$110 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$248
Realized−$362
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage110d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5) England 69¢ 68¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $82 +$8 +10%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $201 +$51 +25%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $67 −$66 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 09 $324 −$255 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 09 $10 +$15 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 09 $110 −$109 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 69¢ $151 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 96¢ $252 13h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 91¢ $82 14h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 76¢ $201 14h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 48¢ $67 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $69 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $274 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $50 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $110 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.33 · official $248.33 (match) · 15 history records