Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:44:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9E 0x9ecb…1f9f crypto 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$512 (+2%) realized +$513 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%113W / 5L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day39.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$791now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days+$331
14 days+$488
30 days+$488
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$311
crypto 21% +$58
other 19% +$118
politics 14% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +1.4% -8.2% 93% 1% -8.1%
≤30d 118 +1.7% -8.0% 96% 1% -7.9%
≤90d 118 +1.7% -8.0% 96% 1% -7.9%
all 118 +1.7% -8.0% 96% 1% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 1% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 0% -16.7%
15% -24.8% 0% -24.8%
20% -32.2% 0% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$30 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.47 per $1 lost it wins $6.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$791
Realized+$513
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses113 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage12d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day39.5
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? No 98¢ 98¢ $792 $791 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $771 +$16 +2%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $756 +$15 +2%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $735 +$15 +2%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $702 +$35 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $180 −$21 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 15 $676 +$20 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $649 +$26 +4%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $625 +$25 +4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $607 +$18 +3%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 14 $595 +$11 +2%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $589 +$6 +1%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $585 +$5 +1%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $562 +$23 +4%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $550 +$11 +2%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $546 +$5 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $530 +$15 +3%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $517 +$13 +2%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,348 $0 +0%
Alphonso Davies: 1+ goals Jun 12 $503 +$4 +1%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $489 +$15 +3%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $2,742 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $141 −$62 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $101 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $202 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $198 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY No 98¢ $792 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 11h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY France 98¢ $771 22h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $662 22h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $110 22h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $756 23h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Egypt 98¢ $599 46h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Egypt 98¢ $136 46h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Egypt 98¢ $1 46h
Belgium leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $308 46h
Belgium leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $20 46h
Belgium leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $384 46h
Belgium leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $25 46h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 95¢ $702 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $790.79 · official $789.58 (match) · 607 history records