Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:52:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9E 0x9ecc…768b other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 632d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$73 (+2%) realized +$74 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate33%9W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,031now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$5
other 31% −$20
sports 11% +$96
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 +22.1% +10.4% 25% 25% -9.3%
all 27 -15.2% -23.2% 33% 19% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 19% -7.0%
10% -30.6% 19% -15.9%
15% -37.3% 19% -24.0%
20% -43.4% 15% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 91% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$8 · ×2.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

632d coverage
Net worth$1,031
Realized+$74
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses9 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage632d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,032 $1,031 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Canadiens vs. Blue Jackets Apr 06 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 17 $1 $0 +40%
Penguins vs. Predators Nov 17 $10 +$11 +108%
Flames vs. Blues Nov 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scott Stringer win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Waldemar Witkowski be the next President of Poland? Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? Jul 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend May 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 05 $5 $0 -1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 25 $4 $0 -2%
Panthers vs. Utah Jan 09 $133 +$96 +72%
Panthers vs. Avalanche Jan 08 $116 +$99 +85%
Senators vs. Blues Jan 05 $103 −$103 -100%
Will another movie gross most in 2024? Jan 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Who will speak more at VP Debate? Oct 02 $18 −$18 -100%
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)? Oct 01 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,032 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $511 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $527 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $512 10h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $528 10h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,036 10h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $1,037 36h
Canadiens vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 53¢ $10 218d
Penguins vs. Predators BUY Predators 48¢ $10 221d
Flames vs. Blues BUY Flames 43¢ $9 224d
Buccaneers vs. Texans BUY Texans 57¢ $6 282d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes $1 333d
Will Scott Stringer win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes $1 341d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 341d
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? BUY No 100¢ $2 365d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? SELL No 76¢ $4 400d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? BUY No 76¢ $4 401d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? SELL No 99¢ $6 401d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 99¢ $6 403d
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend SELL No 99¢ $5 403d
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend BUY No 100¢ $5 405d
Will Waldemar Witkowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes $1 405d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $6 407d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $6 408d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 411d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 412d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $6 413d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $6 414d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 98¢ $5 414d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 98¢ $5 415d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,031.48 · official $1,031.48 (match) · 53 history records